TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Poliniewicz vs Maciej Kolek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711711118117811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:33 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Poliniewicz to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
711711118117811
H2H Grzegorz Poliniewicz 21–17 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 17 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Poliniewicz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-17 in 38
Poliniewicz
Wrong
gap of 4 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Poliniewicz 1680 vs Kolek 1620
Poliniewicz
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Poliniewicz 20% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Poliniewicz 40% vs Kolek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Poliniewicz -2 · Kolek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Poliniewicz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (20%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPoliniewicz 1.70 / Kolek 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Poliniewicz)+3.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13212619
Poliniewicz1.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 317 of 446
Up 2–0, closes it95% 144 of 151
Up 1–0, closes it84% 235 of 281
Kolek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 175 of 443
Down 0–1, comes back22% 57 of 262
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePoliniewicz7wins
AwayKolek3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPoliniewicz leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePoliniewicz71.4%5 of 7
AwayKolek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Poliniewicz7Kolek3n = 10Poliniewicz took 7 of 10
S2Poliniewicz4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S3Poliniewicz6Kolek4n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S4Poliniewicz4Kolek5n = 9Kolek took 5 of 9
S5Poliniewicz4Kolek1n = 5Poliniewicz took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPoliniewiczKolekP − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.639.5+2.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPoliniewiczKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime1219 / 2091 vs 736 / 146658.3%50.2%1219 / 2091 vs 736 / 1466Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PoliniewiczPoliniewicz 1.70/Kolek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58%
Poliniewicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 13:25G. Poliniewicz49127811113M. Kolek48101111882
LAug 13 · 05:50G. Poliniewicz3811271172M. Kolek49911117113
WJul 15 · 08:30G. Poliniewicz45611116113M. Kolek4311771172
WJul 15 · 06:00G. Poliniewicz4211512143M. Kolek3851110121
WJul 14 · 07:40G. Poliniewicz341112113M. Kolek2261060
LJul 14 · 05:15G. Poliniewicz391198111M. Kolek3831111133
LJun 19 · 10:05G. Poliniewicz34711971M. Kolek4211911113
WJun 19 · 07:40G. Poliniewicz3711411113M. Kolek32611871
WJun 19 · 05:15G. Poliniewicz531111119113M. Kolek4213551182
WJun 15 · 05:40G. Poliniewicz45116116113M. Kolek4161171162
G. Poliniewicz10
WSep 29 · 04:50G. Poliniewicz3.20611119113M. Sklensky1.3111941172LSep 28 · 08:05M. Sklensky2.5091111113G. Poliniewicz1.45118851LSep 28 · 07:15K. Kapik1.8311123113G. Poliniewicz1.836101171WSep 28 · 05:15J. Kuzmicz1.5169111172G. Poliniewicz2.40111195113LSep 28 · 04:25D. Kostal2.451113113G. Poliniewicz1.4591150LSep 28 · 03:00M. Rutkowski2.10111156113G. Poliniewicz1.6095111162WSep 25 · 13:50G. Poliniewicz1.49117911113D. Kosmal2.4581111582WSep 25 · 12:35G. Poliniewicz2.201211113M. Nowalinski1.5710870WSep 25 · 11:20G. Poliniewicz1.77711811113M. Malachowski1.9311911482LSep 25 · 10:05K. Kapik1.80139119113G. Poliniewicz1.85111191182
M. Kolek10
WSep 29 · 04:25M. Kolek2.7011119113K. Wloczko1.40681141WSep 28 · 13:55J. Zochniak2.4510880M. Kolek1.491211113LSep 28 · 13:05A. Sobel2.25111177113M. Kolek1.5776111152LSep 28 · 12:15M. Kolek1.90911111272D. Solilo1.75119714113WSep 28 · 10:35M. Kolek1.461113113M. Minda2.5571160WSep 28 · 09:50B. Czerwinski2.0812511992M. Kolek1.681011911113WSep 28 · 00:35M. Kolek1.8311711113L. Pietraszko1.83611981LSep 27 · 23:45M. Olbrycht1.571111143M. Kolek2.2578120WSep 27 · 22:35M. Kolek2.38136211113F. Mlynarski1.53111111452LSep 27 · 21:50J. Kuzmicz1.4011117113M. Kolek2.75551151
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