TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Sobel vs Blazej Warpas 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115811119911115
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:57 and never touched — 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeArtur Sobel to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
115811119911115
H2H Artur Sobel 6–2 Blazej Warpas Blazej Warpas has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 21h before this match
Sobel beat Warpas 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:57What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.39 (67%)
Sobel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Sobel
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobel 1616 vs Warpas 1276
Sobel
Correct
both rated, 340 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobel 40% vs Warpas 20%
Sobel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobel 70% vs Warpas 30%
Sobel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobel -1 · Warpas -4
Warpas
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Sobel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Warpas form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobel 1.39 / Warpas 2.79
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Sobel)+8.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13212324
Sobel1.39
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 170 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it93% 67 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it78% 118 of 151
Warpas2.79
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 88 of 209
Down 0–1, comes back14% 16 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSobel6wins
AwayWarpas2wins
1 of 8 to a deciderSobel leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobel100%6 of 6
AwayWarpasn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobel6Warpas2n = 8Sobel took 6 of 8
S2Sobel4Warpas4n = 8split evenly
S3Sobel7Warpas1n = 8Sobel took 7 of 8
S4Sobel3Warpas0n = 3Sobel took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home450%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricSobelWarpasS − WBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match36.430.2+6.2per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobelWarpasBasisWin rate · lifetime649 / 1192 vs 424 / 81654.5%52%649 / 1192 vs 424 / 816Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobelSobel 1.39/Warpas 2.79
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.1%
Sobel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sobel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 28 · 06:05A. Sobel43111011113B. Warpas33712771
WAug 10 · 13:55A. Sobel341112113B. Warpas2371060
WJul 28 · 11:00A. Sobel341111123B. Warpas2165100
WJul 20 · 07:20A. Sobel3911611113B. Warpas28211691
LJul 20 · 04:55A. Sobel4185111162B. Warpas46111194113
LJul 7 · 10:35A. Sobel2510690B. Warpas341211113
WJul 6 · 14:40A. Sobel391414113B. Warpas32121280
WFeb 27 · 18:20A. Sobel361411113B. Warpas2512580
A. Sobel10
LSep 28 · 14:40A. Sobel1.80119981D. Solilo1.9081111113WSep 28 · 13:05A. Sobel2.25111177113M. Kolek1.5776111152LSep 28 · 11:50A. Sobel1.8045100B. Czerwinski1.851111123LSep 28 · 10:10A. Sobel1.901111118102J. Zochniak1.80137911123WSep 28 · 09:00A. Sobel1.58111198113M. Minda2.2578111182WSep 28 · 07:40M. Trela2.85811991A. Sobel1.3511811113WSep 28 · 06:55J. Zochniak1.859111191A. Sobel1.8011613113WSep 28 · 06:05A. Sobel1.29111011113B. Warpas3.40712771WSep 28 · 04:30A. Sobel1.8511118113M. Kukawka1.85341111WSep 28 · 03:50R. Stapor2.20121111442A. Sobel1.601061311113
B. Warpas10
LSep 29 · 04:30F. Krcil1.7111714113B. Warpas2.003111231LSep 28 · 08:35J. Zochniak1.271111113B. Warpas3.308490LSep 28 · 07:20B. Warpas2.251176111M. Kukawka1.5581111133LSep 28 · 06:05A. Sobel1.29111011113B. Warpas3.40712771LSep 28 · 05:00R. Stapor1.471111113B. Warpas2.509350WSep 28 · 03:25M. Trela1.78831291B. Warpas1.93111110113WAug 21 · 13:55B. Warpas1.9011136113A. Mugowski1.768111151LAug 21 · 12:40B. Warpas2.90101171292M. Minda1.351291110113LAug 21 · 11:25B. Warpas3.205860M. Misiak1.301111113LAug 21 · 10:10D. Solilo1.3711115113B. Warpas2.87991171
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