TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Cernik vs Dmytro Opanasiuk 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
111313111191110––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:07 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeDmytro Opanasiuk to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Cernik above · Dmytro Opanasiuk below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-10
Point 89 set 4, 11-10 — our read held Dmytro Opanasiuk at 66.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jan Cernik 2–11 Dmytro Opanasiuk Jan Cernik has won 2 of their 13 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Cernik beat Opanasiuk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:07What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Opanasiuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-11 in 13
Opanasiuk
Wrong
gap of 9 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1979 vs Opanasiuk 1884
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 80% vs Opanasiuk 40%
Cernik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 90% vs Opanasiuk 50%
Cernik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik -1 · Opanasiuk -3
Opanasiuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Opanasiuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Opanasiuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 2.63 / Opanasiuk 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Opanasiuk)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13200526
Cernik2.63
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 21 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back24% 9 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Opanasiuk1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 94 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it93% 49 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it72% 63 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik2wins
AwayOpanasiuk8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOpanasiuk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik25%1 of 4
AwayOpanasiuk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik4Opanasiuk6n = 10Opanasiuk took 6 of 10
S2Cernik4Opanasiuk6n = 10Opanasiuk took 6 of 10
S3Cernik4Opanasiuk6n = 10Opanasiuk took 6 of 10
S4Cernik1Opanasiuk5n = 6Opanasiuk took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikOpanasiukC − OBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.139.0−7.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikOpanasiukBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 349 vs 164 / 30459%54%206 / 349 vs 164 / 304Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OpanasiukCernik 2.63/Opanasiuk 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Opanasiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 13:29J. Cernik3741111113D. Opanasiuk31117941
WSep 27 · 12:00J. Cernik371111153D. Opanasiuk2456130
LSep 20 · 16:59J. Cernik24481111D. Opanasiuk4211119113
LSep 20 · 14:30J. Cernik165650D. Opanasiuk331111113
LSep 20 · 12:00J. Cernik41121131052D. Opanasiuk511071112113
LSep 19 · 21:30J. Cernik3271690D. Opanasiuk401118113
LSep 19 · 18:00J. Cernik35881181D. Opanasiuk4211119113
LSep 19 · 17:01J. Cernik207760D. Opanasiuk331111113
LSep 19 · 14:30J. Cernik321112541D. Opanasiuk4481411113
LJul 19 · 11:30J. Cernik3711113662D. Opanasiuk50891111113
J. Cernik10
LSep 27 · 14:00J. Zajicek1.401111119113J. Cernik2.7561341152WSep 27 · 13:29J. Cernik2.5041111113D. Opanasiuk1.50117941WSep 27 · 12:00D. Opanasiuk1.3656130J. Cernik3.001111153WSep 27 · 11:00M. Huk6.0011116622J. Cernik1.11991111113WSep 27 · 10:30J. Cernik1.33111168113J. Kanera3.2569111162WSep 25 · 17:30J. Cernik1.131111123M. Huk5.5075100WSep 25 · 16:30J. Cernik1.33631111113O. Kolisnyk3.2511117992WSep 25 · 15:00J. Cernik1.141211113M. Huk5.0010770WSep 25 · 14:00E. Mares2.1051090J. Cernik1.671112113WSep 25 · 13:29E. Mares1.7391110111J. Cernik2.0011512133
D. Opanasiuk10
LSep 27 · 14:30D. Opanasiuk1.4011661182M. Huk2.75811115113LSep 27 · 13:29J. Cernik2.5041111113D. Opanasiuk1.50117941LSep 27 · 12:00D. Opanasiuk1.3656130J. Cernik3.001111153WSep 27 · 11:30J. Kanera2.5031191162D. Opanasiuk1.50119119113WSep 27 · 10:00D. Opanasiuk1.365111011183M. Huk3.00119126162LSep 26 · 13:30D. Opanasiuk2.651161111L. Boruvka1.431311843WSep 26 · 12:00L. Boruvka1.57111110582D. Opanasiuk2.25651211113WSep 26 · 11:00M. Parzhizek1.8071111992D. Opanasiuk1.91116911113WSep 26 · 10:30D. Opanasiuk1.44101111113E. Mares2.63129771LSep 26 · 09:30L. Jindrak2.706111211113D. Opanasiuk1.4011614862
Upcoming Matches
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