TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Andriej Fomin vs Michal Guzik 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81112101171113119
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:52 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndriej Fomin above · Michal Guzik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 103 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Michal Guzik at 70.3%
103 points played in total.
H2H Andriej Fomin 1–6 Michal Guzik Andriej Fomin has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Guzik beat Fomin 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:52What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Guzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Guzik
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fomin 1427 vs Guzik 1678
Guzik
Wrong
both rated, 251 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fomin 80% vs Guzik 60%
Fomin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fomin 50% vs Guzik 80%
Guzik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fomin +3 · Guzik -2
Fomin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFomin 3.40 / Guzik 1.30
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Guzik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13188919
Fomin3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog48% won 63 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back35% 25 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Guzik1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite77% won 156 of 203
Up 2–0, closes it98% 91 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it91% 114 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeFomin1wins
AwayGuzik6wins
2 of 7 to a deciderGuzik leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFominn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGuzik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fomin2Guzik5n = 7Guzik took 5 of 7
S2Fomin2Guzik5n = 7Guzik took 5 of 7
S3Fomin2Guzik5n = 7Guzik took 5 of 7
S4Fomin0Guzik4n = 4Guzik took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricFominGuzikF − GBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match33.340.7−7.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFominGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime545 / 933 vs 172 / 22958.4%75.1%545 / 933 vs 172 / 229Avg sets wonper match2.12.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikFomin 3.40/Guzik 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.3%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 24 · 16:15A. Fomin31651371M. Guzik44111111113
LSep 20 · 01:10A. Fomin46111159102M. Guzik48861111123
LSep 19 · 19:10A. Fomin209560M. Guzik331111113
WAug 4 · 24:00A. Fomin49131195113M. Guzik44115111162
LJul 27 · 16:15A. Fomin249870M. Guzik331111113
LJul 19 · 22:35A. Fomin2571260M. Guzik361114113
LJul 19 · 15:00A. Fomin388514111M. Guzik47111112133
A. Fomin10
WSep 25 · 24:35A. Fomin1.4411811113J. Skorupa2.63711521WSep 24 · 23:20A. Fomin1.73991215113J. Michalik2.001111101342WSep 24 · 22:10K. Kwiatkowski1.831171431A. Fomin1.8391116113LSep 24 · 21:20A. Fomin1.6181070M. Karpiuk2.201112113WSep 24 · 19:40A. Fomin1.8311116113K. Kwiatkowski1.83951171LSep 24 · 18:30A. Fomin1.449590J. Skorupa2.631111113WSep 24 · 17:20A. Fomin1.571251111123J. Michalik2.25141188102LSep 24 · 16:15M. Guzik1.40111111113A. Fomin2.75651371LSep 24 · 15:25A. Fomin1.6728111162M. Karpiuk2.10111186113LSep 20 · 02:45A. Fomin1.9011680H. Tkaczyk1.751311113
M. Guzik10
LSep 25 · 01:00K. Kwiatkowski3.501111113M. Guzik1.286990LSep 25 · 24:10M. Guzik1.25981261M. Karpiuk3.75111110113WSep 24 · 22:35M. Guzik1.20611611113J. Michalik4.3311611792WSep 24 · 21:45J. Skorupa5.009940M. Guzik1.141111113WSep 24 · 20:30M. Guzik1.2511811113M. Karpiuk3.75811771WSep 24 · 18:55M. Guzik1.28115139113K. Kwiatkowski3.50211111192WSep 24 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171211113J. Skorupa4.5010780WSep 24 · 16:15M. Guzik1.40111111113A. Fomin2.75651371WSep 24 · 15:00M. Guzik1.281111113J. Michalik3.504670WSep 21 · 01:45K. Rybak9.0011115792M. Guzik1.04491111113
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