TT Lossbeater/WTT Feeder Berlin Quals
WTT Feeder Berlin QualsMatch #12459498
Played Aug 20Finished
Tom Closset
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311119116––––
Nazar Tretiak
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTom Closset to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTom Closset above · Nazar Tretiak below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 61 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Tom Closset at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Tom Closset 1–0 Nazar Tretiak Nazar Tretiak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:20What took a side0 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Tretiak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Closset 20% vs Tretiak 40%
Tretiak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Closset 50% vs Tretiak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Closset -1 · Tretiak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Tretiak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tretiak form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsClosset 2.63 / Tretiak 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Tretiak)-0.0pp
WTT Feeder Berlin Quals · #12459498
Closset2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
Tretiak1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeClosset1wins
AwayTretiak0wins
Closset leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricClossetTretiakC − TBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match35.026.0+9.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricClossetTretiakBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 10 vs 3 / 1050%30%5 / 10 vs 3 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.01.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TretiakClosset 2.63/Tretiak 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Tretiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Closset won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 20 · 09:10T. Closset—1311113N. Tretiak—11960
T. Closset10
LAug 26 · 10:20D. Lillo1.22811117113T. Closset4.0011851172LAug 21 · 16:50R. Kawakami1.051111113T. Closset8.507770WAug 20 · 15:05L. Stoll1.831211139102T. Closset1.831441111123LAug 19 · 14:00T. Closset1.509117101C. Cozmolici2.5011411113WMay 11 · 08:10T. Closset—11611113L. Ullmann—311891LMay 10 · 16:30T. Closset—4118101Z. Kenjaev—11711123LApr 18 · 14:30T. Closset—1181081A. Klajber—91112113LApr 14 · 16:55T. Closset—7760H. Suzuki—1111113WApr 14 · 11:00T. Closset—131111113S. Gilles—156841WApr 13 · 11:40T. Closset1.06121112113C. Hold7.001071451
N. Tretiak10
WAug 19 · 09:10N. Tretiak1.20111011113C. Cozmolici4.33912251LJul 2 · 15:35N. Tretiak—61070K. Yoshiyama—1112113LJul 2 · 09:10A. Puppo—1111113N. Tretiak—8970WJul 1 · 07:35N. Tretiak—1111113A. Siraj—7780LMay 15 · 15:00Y. Kizukuri—71112113N. Tretiak—1141071WMay 15 · 09:00I. Vila—71111572N. Tretiak—119811113LMar 3 · 09:35I. Kharki1.181111113N. Tretiak4.259360LMar 2 · 09:35N. Tretiak4.337640I. Sgouropoulos1.201111113LNov 24 · 15:45A. Alkhadrawi1.831111113N. Tretiak1.839520LOct 15 · 11:30N. Tretiak4.805270R. Gardos1.121111113
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