TT Lossbeater/WTT Europe Smash Sweden Quals
WTT Europe Smash Sweden QualsMatch #12382385
Played Aug 9Finished
Marcos Freitas
Home
1.98
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911611––––
Iulian Chirita
Away
1.68
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:17 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeIulian Chirita to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcos Freitas above · Iulian Chirita below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 55 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Iulian Chirita at 54.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Marcos Freitas 0–2 Iulian Chirita Marcos Freitas has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:17What took a side3 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (54%)
Chirita
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Freitas 40% vs Chirita 80%
Chirita
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Freitas 60% vs Chirita 80%
Chirita
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Freitas -1 · Chirita +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chirita)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chirita form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFreitas 1.98 / Chirita 1.68
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chirita)+0.0pp
WTT Europe Smash Sweden Quals · #12382385
Freitas1.98
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Chirita1.68
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest89%takes the first set · 8 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeFreitas0wins
AwayChirita2wins
Chirita leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away2
These 2 meetings
MetricFreitasChiritaF − CBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match22.033.0−11.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFreitasChiritaBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 10 vs 8 / 1060%80%6 / 10 vs 8 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.22.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChiritaFreitas 1.98/Chirita 1.68
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Chirita · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chirita won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 9 · 10:20M. Freitas—7960I. Chirita—1111113
LAug 9 · 08:35M. Freitas—7960I. Chirita—1111113
M. Freitas10
LAug 9 · 08:35M. Freitas2.107960I. Chirita1.671111113WAug 8 · 08:45M. Freitas1.051111113T. Choi8.505370LJun 28 · 03:25M. Freitas1.36671251H. Cifuentes3.00111110113WJun 27 · 19:20M. Freitas1.83791112113Y. Chang1.83111191062LJun 16 · 15:00S. Aida2.38711119113M. Freitas1.5311371122LJun 6 · 16:05M. Freitas2.10111771K. Jha1.6791111113WJun 4 · 17:50E. Dorr2.5058100M. Freitas1.501111123WJun 3 · 15:10H. Hsu2.6381110131M. Freitas1.4411812153WJun 2 · 15:35M. Freitas1.361111133A. Putuntica3.0033110WJun 1 · 16:40M. Freitas1.441111113A. Kouraichi2.635480
I. Chirita10
LAug 10 · 18:20E. Ranefur2.001114113I. Chirita1.7331280WAug 9 · 16:10I. Chirita1.8511115153V. Ursu1.854811131WAug 9 · 08:35M. Freitas2.107960I. Chirita1.671111113LJun 29 · 01:00J. Geraldo2.009111011123I. Chirita1.73119124102WJun 28 · 01:40I. Chirita1.56711511113D. Kozul2.2311611582WJun 27 · 17:00A. Robles1.731012121172I. Chirita2.001210148113WJun 26 · 19:55C. Nuytinck2.3876111142I. Chirita1.53111169113LJun 4 · 11:55I. Chirita2.38119771G. Park1.5341111113WJun 3 · 15:35I. Chirita1.401111113L. Devos2.758650WJun 2 · 15:00I. Chirita1.1412711113A. Levenko5.001011291
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