TT Lossbeater/WTT Star Contender Brazil Qual
WTT Star Contender Brazil QualMatch #12283080
Played Jul 22Finished
Felipe Olivares
Home
8.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–2Last 4Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11911131166111311
Vincent Picard
Away
1.06
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:57 and never touched — 88.3% is still 88.3%
Graded at full timeVincent Picard to win
88.3%
88.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFelipe Olivares above · Vincent Picard below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 102 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Vincent Picard at 88.3%
102 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:57What took a side1 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.06 (88%)
Picard
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Olivares 50% vs Picard 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olivares 50% vs Picard 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Olivares +1 · Picard +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Picard)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Picard form (60%) is below what odds imply (94%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlivares 8.00 / Picard 1.06
Signal prob.12% / 88%
Edge (Picard)+0.0pp
WTT Star Contender Brazil Qual · #12283080
Olivares8.00
50%won 2 of 4 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 2 of 4
Picard1.06
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlivaresPicardBasisWin rate · lifetime3 / 10 vs 4 / 1030%40%3 / 10 vs 4 / 10Avg sets wonper match1.21.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PicardOlivares 8.00/Picard 1.06
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
88.3%
Picard · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Olivares won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
F. Olivares10
LAug 26 · 10:55F. Olivares2.201110111252D. Szantosi1.615121310113LJul 23 · 22:55F. Olivares5.505990L. Nodrest1.131111113WJul 22 · 14:00F. Olivares—1111113F. Sousa—5760WApr 30 · 19:30H. Gendron—2340F. Olivares—1111113LApr 29 · 19:48M. Kubik1.171111113F. Olivares4.506980LApr 28 · 19:21F. Olivares8.008760V. Ursu1.061111103WJun 29 · 22:10R. Blanco2.254790F. Olivares1.571111113LMay 11 · 09:00O. Kveton—1112113F. Olivares—91070LMay 11 · 06:00T. Martinko—91111123F. Olivares—1159101WMay 10 · 12:30M. Bankosz—12960F. Olivares—1411113
V. Picard10
LSep 4 · 06:10V. Picard2.50981171A. Robles1.5011116113WSep 3 · 07:55V. Picard1.221191110113I. Artukmetov4.0021181252WJul 22 · 14:35D. Toma—9990V. Picard—1111113LJul 11 · 21:50G. Teodoro2.7011111311113V. Picard1.3991315792WJul 11 · 16:20V. Picard1.3051111123A. Naranjo3.401173101WJul 10 · 15:20V. Picard1.011111113B. Botha13.007850LJul 3 · 09:55J. Hung1.501111113V. Picard2.509990LJul 3 · 08:35J. Hung1.471111113V. Picard2.399990LMay 22 · 10:55V. Picard—811631Y. Lin—11611113LMay 22 · 08:00V. Picard1.57811631Y. Lin2.2511611113
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