TT Lossbeater/WTT Star Contender Brazil Qual
WTT Star Contender Brazil QualMatch #12285404
Played Jul 23Finished
Felipe Olivares
Home
5.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–2Last 6Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911911––––
Leo De Nodrest
Away
1.13
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:32 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeLeo De Nodrest to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFelipe Olivares above · Leo De Nodrest below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Leo De Nodrest at 55.3%
56 points played in total.
H2H Felipe Olivares 0–1 Leo De Nodrest Felipe Olivares has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:32What took a side2 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Nodrest
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Olivares 60% vs Nodrest 80%
Nodrest
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olivares 67% vs Nodrest 70%
—
Too close
3pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Olivares +3 · Nodrest -1
Olivares
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Nodrest) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olivares form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (18%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlivares 5.50 / Nodrest 1.13
Signal prob.17% / 83%
Edge (Nodrest)-0.0pp
WTT Star Contender Brazil Qual · #12285404
Olivares5.50
67%won 4 of 6 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 3 of 5
Nodrest1.13
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeOlivares0wins
AwayNodrest1wins
Nodrest leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricOlivaresNodrestO − NBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match23.033.0−10.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlivaresNodrestBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 10 vs 7 / 1050%70%5 / 10 vs 7 / 10Avg sets wonper match1.72.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NodrestOlivares 5.50/Nodrest 1.13
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83%
Nodrest · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nodrest won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJul 23 · 22:55F. Olivares—5990L. Nodrest—1111113
F. Olivares10
LAug 26 · 10:55F. Olivares2.201110111252D. Szantosi1.615121310113WJul 22 · 21:45F. Olivares8.001111116133V. Picard1.06913611112WJul 22 · 14:00F. Olivares—1111113F. Sousa—5760WApr 30 · 19:30H. Gendron—2340F. Olivares—1111113LApr 29 · 19:48M. Kubik1.171111113F. Olivares4.506980LApr 28 · 19:21F. Olivares8.008760V. Ursu1.061111103WJun 29 · 22:10R. Blanco2.254790F. Olivares1.571111113LMay 11 · 09:00O. Kveton—1112113F. Olivares—91070LMay 11 · 06:00T. Martinko—91111123F. Olivares—1159101WMay 10 · 12:30M. Bankosz—12960F. Olivares—1411113
L. Nodrest10
LJul 24 · 20:00J. Oh1.361011118123L. Nodrest3.00129611102LJul 12 · 21:15L. Nodrest1.4411891182A. Kouraichi2.63911117113WJul 12 · 14:10L. Nodrest1.43159411113G. Teodoro2.60131111592WJul 11 · 21:50L. Nodrest1.261111113T. Monteiro3.357860WJul 11 · 16:20L. Nodrest1.40111211113T. Hippler2.75414661WJul 10 · 21:50L. Nodrest1.281111113F. Igarashi3.505660LJun 18 · 04:00L. Nodrest2.5068150V. Sidorenko1.501111173WJun 17 · 23:45F. Zeljko—411125102L. Nodrest—1181011123WJun 17 · 17:35F. Zeljko3.00411125102L. Nodrest1.361181011113WJun 16 · 16:10P. Jain2.159880L. Nodrest1.551111113
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