TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Denys Kovtanyuk vs Wiekiera Arkadiusz 1-3 · TT Cup
TT CupPoland 2 · Kielce
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012611118911––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched: 65.8% is still 65.8%
Graded at full timeWiekiera Arkadiusz to win
65.8%
65.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
1012611118911––
H2H Denys Kovtanyuk 1–5 Wiekiera Arkadiusz Denys Kovtanyuk has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5365.8%Our read66.2%to break even at 1.51
short by 0.4pp66.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.51 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.51 (61%)
Arkadiusz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Arkadiusz
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovtanyuk 1359 vs Arkadiusz 1456
Arkadiusz
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovtanyuk 80% vs Arkadiusz 40%
Kovtanyuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovtanyuk 50% vs Arkadiusz 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovtanyuk +4 · Arkadiusz +1
Kovtanyuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Arkadiusz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Arkadiusz form (40%) is below what odds imply (66%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovtanyuk 2.40 / Arkadiusz 1.51
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Arkadiusz)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13281373
Kovtanyuk2.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog28% won 23 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back13% 7 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Arkadiusz1.51
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 123 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it96% 45 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it77% 86 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKovtanyuk1wins
AwayArkadiusz5wins
2 of 6 to a deciderArkadiusz leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovtanyuk33.3%1 of 3
AwayArkadiusz100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovtanyuk3Arkadiusz3n = 6split evenly
S2Kovtanyuk3Arkadiusz3n = 6split evenly
S3Kovtanyuk2Arkadiusz4n = 6Arkadiusz took 4 of 6
S4Kovtanyuk2Arkadiusz3n = 5Arkadiusz took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKovtanyukArkadiuszK − ABasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match39.242.8−3.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovtanyukArkadiuszBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 220 vs 548 / 98532.7%55.6%72 / 220 vs 548 / 985Avg sets wonper match1.62.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.641.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ArkadiuszKovtanyuk 2.40/Arkadiusz 1.51
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.8%
Arkadiusz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Arkadiusz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LOct 7 · 15:00D. Kovtanyuk51156111182W. Arkadiusz551311137113
WOct 6 · 14:00D. Kovtanyuk331111113W. Arkadiusz184860
LOct 5 · 21:00D. Kovtanyuk49517101162W. Arkadiusz571115128113
LSep 30 · 20:30D. Kovtanyuk29711831W. Arkadiusz4111811113
LSep 29 · 18:00D. Kovtanyuk3712411101W. Arkadiusz46101113123
LSep 28 · 14:00D. Kovtanyuk367811101W. Arkadiusz4011116123
D. Kovtanyuk10
LOct 11 · 21:05P. Kamil1.55811117113D. Kovtanyuk2.3011861132WOct 11 · 19:05D. Kovtanyuk1.90119911113J. Komorowicz1.7661111662WOct 11 · 17:35D. Kovtanyuk2.8711146113K. Patryk1.379121181WOct 11 · 15:35D. Kovtanyuk1.68121111113S. Toborek2.05148651WOct 7 · 18:30P. Kedzierski2.055890D. Kovtanyuk1.661111113LOct 7 · 16:30J. Komorowicz1.90101111113D. Kovtanyuk1.76122971LOct 7 · 15:00W. Arkadiusz1.411311137113D. Kovtanyuk2.60156111182LOct 7 · 14:00K. Patryk1.4111118113D. Kovtanyuk2.60771141LOct 6 · 22:30K. Patryk1.501111113D. Kovtanyuk2.409470LOct 6 · 20:00D. Kovtanyuk2.374590K. Patryk1.521111113
W. Arkadiusz10
WOct 11 · 18:05P. Kamil1.61101391272W. Arkadiusz2.2012111110113LOct 11 · 17:05K. Patryk1.8212118113W. Arkadiusz1.881081191WOct 11 · 16:05W. Arkadiusz1.40911611113J. Komorowicz2.7511711852LOct 7 · 19:00K. Patryk—11115113W. Arkadiusz—591161LOct 7 · 18:00W. Arkadiusz2.009111481K. Patryk1.7111916113LOct 7 · 17:00W. Arkadiusz1.36811911142J. Komorowicz2.85119119163LOct 7 · 16:00W. Arkadiusz1.68910111172P. Kedzierski2.08111277113WOct 7 · 15:00W. Arkadiusz1.411311137113D. Kovtanyuk2.60156111182WOct 6 · 22:00W. Arkadiusz1.25151187113P. Kedzierski3.70136111182WOct 6 · 20:30M. Szostak2.05117681W. Arkadiusz1.7091111113
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