TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Cezary Pawlik vs Jacek Oracz 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119911911711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:23 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Oracz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
119911911711––
H2H Cezary Pawlik 36–36 Jacek Oracz Dead even across their 72 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2354.0%Our read58.5%to break even at 1.71
short by 4.5pp58.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.71 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
36-36 in 72
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1528 vs Oracz 1529
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 40% vs Oracz 60%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 60% vs Oracz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +1 · Oracz +3
Oracz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Oracz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 2.00 / Oracz 1.71
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Oracz)-4.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13275368
Pawlik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 44 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back13% 7 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Oracz1.71
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 312 of 438
Up 2–0, closes it99% 193 of 196
Up 1–0, closes it87% 255 of 293
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik6wins
AwayOracz4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik100%4 of 4
AwayOracz66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Pawlik6Oracz4n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S3Pawlik6Oracz4n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S4Pawlik4Oracz5n = 9Oracz took 5 of 9
S5Pawlik2Oracz1n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikOraczP − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.241.0−1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime331 / 560 vs 658 / 90959.1%72.4%331 / 560 vs 658 / 909Avg sets wonper match2.22.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OraczPawlik 2.00/Oracz 1.71
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 02:00C. Pawlik35713691J. Oracz44111111113
WOct 9 · 16:25C. Pawlik4281112113J. Oracz371181081
LOct 4 · 02:00C. Pawlik4161111762J. Oracz44116511113
LOct 3 · 16:25C. Pawlik2761290J. Oracz361114113
WOct 3 · 02:00C. Pawlik3913114113J. Oracz351141191
WOct 2 · 16:25C. Pawlik45114118113J. Oracz4991191192
WSep 26 · 22:50C. Pawlik4011711113J. Oracz34611981
WSep 26 · 15:10C. Pawlik47141147113J. Oracz51129111182
WSep 18 · 22:50C. Pawlik4371113123J. Oracz4011811101
LSep 18 · 15:10C. Pawlik33691171J. Oracz4011117113
C. Pawlik10
WOct 10 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.801151011113O. Jedrzejowski1.9061112492LOct 10 · 02:00J. Oracz1.77111111113C. Pawlik1.93713691LOct 10 · 01:10M. Krutak2.1011411113C. Pawlik1.65911471WOct 10 · 00:25C. Pawlik1.23111110113K. Malcher3.80681281LOct 9 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.9012118101O. Jedrzejowski1.7514811123LOct 9 · 22:00J. Skorupa2.4171911123C. Pawlik1.5111179101WOct 9 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.251111113K. Malcher3.454220WOct 9 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.5711117133M. Krutak2.206711111WOct 9 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.501111113J. Skorupa2.356550WOct 9 · 16:25C. Pawlik2.0081112113J. Oracz1.731181081
J. Oracz10
WOct 10 · 15:35J. Oracz1.401011811113G. Mucha2.7512811552WOct 10 · 02:00J. Oracz1.77111111113C. Pawlik1.93713691WOct 10 · 00:45J. Oracz1.3291111113J. Skorupa3.00117761LOct 9 · 23:35J. Oracz1.551110971O. Jedrzejowski2.2571211113LOct 9 · 22:25M. Krutak2.301011118123J. Oracz1.52125411102LOct 9 · 21:35J. Oracz1.6111811992K. Malcher2.19511911113WOct 9 · 20:00J. Oracz1.711111113M. Krutak2.007680WOct 9 · 18:45J. Oracz1.261111113J. Skorupa3.506680LOct 9 · 17:35J. Oracz1.50119140O. Jedrzejowski2.451311163LOct 9 · 16:25C. Pawlik2.0081112113J. Oracz1.731181081
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