TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Kowalczyk vs Piotr Krukar 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311911114511––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:34 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Kowalczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
65 points played in total.
Set by set
311911114511––
H2H Marcin Kowalczyk 3–1 Piotr Krukar Piotr Krukar has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:3454.0%Our read52.6%to break even at 1.90
clears by 1.4pp52.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.90 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krukar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Kowalczyk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalczyk 1244 vs Krukar 1282
Krukar
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalczyk 20% vs Krukar 80%
Krukar
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalczyk 50% vs Krukar 80%
Krukar
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalczyk -3 · Krukar +2
Kowalczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kowalczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krukar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalczyk 1.90 / Krukar 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kowalczyk)+1.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13266129
Kowalczyk1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 142 of 325
Down 0–1, comes back23% 38 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 74
Krukar1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite49% won 18 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKowalczyk3wins
AwayKrukar1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderKowalczyk leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowalczykn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKrukar33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalczyk1Krukar3n = 4Krukar took 3 of 4
S2Kowalczyk2Krukar2n = 4split evenly
S3Kowalczyk2Krukar2n = 4split evenly
S4Kowalczyk2Krukar1n = 3Kowalczyk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKowalczykKrukarKowalczyk − KrukarBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match39.237.0+2.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalczykKrukarBasisWin rate · lifetime729 / 1484 vs 30 / 6949.1%43.5%729 / 1484 vs 30 / 69Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KowalczykKowalczyk 1.90/Krukar 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kowalczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krukar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 7 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk4311118133P. Krukar292511111
LSep 24 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1810440P. Krukar341211113
WSep 23 · 21:05M. Kowalczyk518111110113P. Krukar4311651292
WSep 23 · 19:20M. Kowalczyk45931111113P. Krukar4211119562
M. Kowalczyk10
LOct 8 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.85121170D. Poloszczanski1.851413113LOct 8 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk2.10118781M. Skorski1.6371111113LOct 8 · 16:15M. Trela1.611111113M. Kowalczyk2.205590WOct 8 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk2.351111123J. Rolak1.5285100LOct 7 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.871111145152P. Strus1.83461611173WOct 7 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.99131111113W. Suchecki1.74158571WOct 7 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk1.8811118133P. Krukar1.842511111WOct 7 · 16:15M. Trela1.688540M. Kowalczyk2.051111113WOct 7 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk2.0011119113B. Mrugala1.71831161LOct 5 · 23:20B. Kwodawski1.871111113M. Kowalczyk1.839750
P. Krukar10
WOct 8 · 18:55M. Trela1.65118561P. Krukar2.1051111113WOct 8 · 18:10P. Krukar1.801111113J. Rolak1.859780LOct 8 · 16:35P. Krukar1.80711961M. Skorski1.8511711113WOct 8 · 15:50D. Poloszczanski1.8071110101P. Krukar1.8611812123WOct 8 · 00:10B. Mrugala2.06571191P. Krukar1.6011117113LOct 7 · 23:45P. Krukar2.4011116562A. Myszewski1.50671111113WOct 7 · 22:55P. Krukar1.571112113W. Suchecki2.2581060WOct 7 · 21:05P. Krukar2.1816811133M. Trela1.6214115111WOct 7 · 20:05W. Suchecki2.00541161P. Krukar1.7211118113LOct 7 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk1.8811118133P. Krukar1.842511111
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