TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Waclaw Suchecki vs Bartlomiej Mrugala 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111176111412118
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:54 and never touched: 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mrugala to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
100 points played in total.
Set by set
9111176111412118
H2H Waclaw Suchecki 5–3 Bartlomiej Mrugala Bartlomiej Mrugala has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:5457.2%Our read60.6%to break even at 1.65
short by 3.4pp60.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.65 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Mrugala
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Suchecki
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Suchecki 1182 vs Mrugala 1276
Mrugala
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Suchecki 40% vs Mrugala 60%
Mrugala
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Suchecki 40% vs Mrugala 60%
Mrugala
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Suchecki -1 · Mrugala -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Mrugala) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSuchecki 2.10 / Mrugala 1.65
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Mrugala)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13260394
Suchecki2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 33 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back17% 9 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 38
Mrugala1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 58 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it86% 38 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSuchecki5wins
AwayMrugala3wins
3 of 8 to a deciderSuchecki leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSuchecki75%3 of 4
AwayMrugala50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Suchecki4Mrugala4n = 8split evenly
S2Suchecki3Mrugala5n = 8Mrugala took 5 of 8
S3Suchecki6Mrugala2n = 8Suchecki took 6 of 8
S4Suchecki4Mrugala3n = 7Suchecki took 4 of 7
S5Suchecki2Mrugala1n = 3Suchecki took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricSucheckiMrugalaS − MBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match40.835.5+5.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSucheckiMrugalaBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 307 vs 333 / 72238.4%46.1%118 / 307 vs 333 / 722Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MrugalaSuchecki 2.10/Mrugala 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.2%
Mrugala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Suchecki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJul 7 · 23:20W. Suchecki491110611113B. Mrugala4481211582
LJul 7 · 21:00W. Suchecki34871181B. Mrugala4011117113
WJul 7 · 16:15W. Suchecki4061111123B. Mrugala351195101
LFeb 26 · 12:45W. Suchecki4811911892B. Mrugala43511511113
WDec 30 · 18:30W. Suchecki371115113B. Mrugala2251340
LDec 30 · 11:55W. Suchecki29751161B. Mrugala3711114113
WDec 29 · 18:30W. Suchecki4291111113B. Mrugala25112481
WDec 29 · 11:55W. Suchecki47117711113B. Mrugala3871111542
W. Suchecki10
LOct 7 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.99131111113W. Suchecki1.74158571LOct 7 · 17:45M. Trela1.5781111143W. Suchecki2.201168121LOct 7 · 15:50W. Suchecki2.009930P. Strus1.711111113WOct 3 · 13:55J. Rolak1.53411391W. Suchecki2.3511811113LOct 3 · 13:05M. Zwolinski1.701011611113W. Suchecki2.0512811892WOct 3 · 11:00W. Suchecki2.1711712113A. Eliasz1.629111061LOct 3 · 10:35W. Suchecki2.1010550P. Krukar1.601211113LOct 3 · 08:35W. Suchecki2.708880J. Rolak1.411111113LOct 3 · 06:55W. Suchecki2.1081111452M. Zwolinski1.60114611113LOct 3 · 05:40W. Suchecki2.0010101181D. Poloszczanski1.7112127113
B. Mrugala10
LOct 7 · 18:10P. Strus1.80111011113B. Mrugala1.90312671LOct 7 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk2.0011119113B. Mrugala1.71831161WOct 7 · 00:35B. Mrugala1.9011311113A. Myszewski1.81811771WOct 6 · 23:45K. Golaszewski2.30111012252B. Mrugala1.557121011113LOct 6 · 22:35B. Mrugala1.7210960J. Rolak2.001211113WOct 6 · 21:55M. Skorski1.776811101B. Mrugala1.9511117123WOct 6 · 20:05B. Mrugala1.5211128113K. Golaszewski2.309101191WOct 6 · 18:30A. Myszewski1.8561181262B. Mrugala1.851141110113WOct 6 · 17:45M. Skorski1.908101181B. Mrugala1.8011128113LOct 6 · 16:55B. Mrugala1.681061151J. Rolak2.0512115113
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