TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jaroslav Baca vs Rene Kowal 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Jaroslav Baca
Home
2.60
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511116118116––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched: 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeRene Kowal to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Baca above · Rene Kowal below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 69 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Rene Kowal at 64.4%
69 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:3864.4%Our read69.4%to break even at 1.44
short by 5.0pp69.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.44 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (64%)
Kowal
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Baca 20% vs Kowal 80%
Kowal
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baca 30% vs Kowal 70%
Kowal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baca -4 · Kowal +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Kowal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaca 2.60 / Kowal 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kowal)-5.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13255484
Baca2.60
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kowal1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 40 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricBacaKowalBasisWin rate · lifetime3 / 10 vs 159 / 30930%51.5%3 / 10 vs 159 / 309Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
Forecastthe model predicts this market
Match Winner
KowalBaca 2.60/Kowal 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.4%
Kowal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Baca won
Handicap · Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Baca10
LOct 6 · 18:45J. Baca2.406380D. Sarganek1.501111113LOct 6 · 17:45J. Baca1.8391181172A. Baros1.83119118113LFeb 5 · 03:20P. Wawrosz1.8391111113J. Baca1.83119591LFeb 5 · 02:35J. Baca1.7347120M. Kowalczyk2.001111143WFeb 5 · 01:20A. Rusnak1.91671131J. Baca1.8011119113WFeb 5 · 00:55P. Wawrosz1.801012991J. Baca1.91121011113LFeb 5 · 00:05J. Baca1.67461551M. Kowalczyk2.10111113113WFeb 4 · 22:55A. Rusnak1.918830J. Baca1.801111113LFeb 4 · 22:10J. Baca2.20511111042P. Wawrosz1.61112512113LFeb 4 · 20:30S. Wnek2.38781211113J. Baca1.53111110482
R. Kowal10
WOct 6 · 19:15A. Baros1.918111041R. Kowal1.8011812113WOct 6 · 18:15R. Kowal1.91841112113D. Sarganek1.80111141052WSep 29 · 17:13F. Sikora1.83114771R. Kowal1.8351111113LSep 29 · 15:45F. Sikora1.8011411123R. Kowal1.918115101WSep 29 · 15:15P. Vicherek2.00117731R. Kowal1.7351111113WSep 29 · 14:15R. Kowal2.0011711113D. Sarganek1.73911741LSep 28 · 21:05R. Kowal2.207740D. Sarganek1.611111113WSep 28 · 19:40R. Kowal1.73411115113A. Baros2.0011361172WSep 28 · 18:40R. Kowal1.9111413113D. Sarganek1.806111181LSep 28 · 17:40R. Kowal1.807560P. Vicherek1.911111113
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