TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Adamus vs Lukasz Oracz 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210118115––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:13 and never touched: 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeKacper Adamus to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
1210118115––––
H2H Kacper Adamus 33–25 Lukasz Oracz Lukasz Oracz has won 25 of their 58 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Oracz beat Adamus 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:1356.7%Our read64.5%to break even at 1.55
short by 7.8pp64.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.55 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (58%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
33-25 in 58
Adamus
Correct
gap of 8 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1347 vs Oracz 1387
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Oracz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 50% vs Oracz 70%
Oracz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +2 · Oracz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Adamus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.55 / Oracz 2.15
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Adamus)-7.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13252663
Adamus1.55
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 355 of 583
Up 2–0, closes it97% 198 of 205
Up 1–0, closes it79% 288 of 367
Oracz2.15
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 124 of 296
Down 0–1, comes back20% 33 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus4wins
AwayOracz6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus80%4 of 5
AwayOracz100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S2Adamus4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Adamus7Oracz3n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S4Adamus3Oracz5n = 8Oracz took 5 of 8
S5Adamus1Oracz3n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusOraczA − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.741.4−0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime923 / 1699 vs 868 / 157754.3%55%923 / 1699 vs 868 / 1577Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.55/Oracz 2.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.7%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 18:45K. Adamus419131181L. Oracz4311156113
LSep 28 · 23:50K. Adamus48111311672L. Oracz51815611113
LSep 28 · 17:55K. Adamus2911990L. Oracz351311113
WSep 1 · 11:55K. Adamus50118117133L. Oracz48811711112
WSep 1 · 05:55K. Adamus4211713113L. Oracz367111171
WJul 24 · 01:10K. Adamus331111113L. Oracz248970
LJul 9 · 22:50K. Adamus32911751L. Oracz4011711113
WJun 16 · 13:10K. Adamus3911511123L. Oracz369116101
LJun 16 · 05:30K. Adamus4691211772L. Oracz521110911113
LJun 12 · 01:10K. Adamus47111161182L. Oracz49135119113
K. Adamus10
WOct 6 · 03:05K. Adamus1.1815129123K. Kowalski4.10131011101WOct 6 · 01:30K. Adamus1.951212113W. Urban1.75101070LOct 6 · 00:30D. Dytko2.001114113K. Adamus1.7171280LOct 5 · 23:50K. Adamus2.35791371P. Gumulinski1.53111111113WOct 5 · 22:20K. Adamus1.722111111113D. Dytko2.0011913552WOct 5 · 21:05K. Adamus1.20119911113K. Kowalski4.2091111582LOct 5 · 19:55K. Adamus2.259990W. Urban1.551111113LOct 5 · 18:45L. Oracz1.7511156113K. Adamus1.909131181WOct 5 · 17:55K. Adamus1.951111113P. Gumulinski1.758690LOct 3 · 08:45K. Adamus1.879780W. Pytlas1.841111113
L. Oracz10
WOct 6 · 03:30D. Dytko2.4071131192L. Oracz1.51118117113LOct 6 · 02:10L. Oracz2.2010111031P. Gumulinski1.5712912113LOct 6 · 00:50L. Oracz1.9011670W. Urban1.801311113WOct 6 · 00:10K. Kowalski3.86118741L. Oracz1.2281111113WOct 5 · 23:05L. Oracz1.871111113P. Gumulinski1.838990WOct 5 · 21:30L. Oracz1.57911115113D. Dytko2.2011861182LOct 5 · 20:20L. Oracz1.27121111772K. Kowalski3.351013211113WOct 5 · 18:45L. Oracz1.7511156113K. Adamus1.909131181WOct 5 · 17:30L. Oracz1.821111123W. Urban1.8898100WOct 4 · 16:20L. Oracz1.801111143P. Jedrzejak1.8565120
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.