TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Adamus vs Kamil Kowalski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
151312109111210––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:03 and never touched: 79.7% is still 79.7%
Graded at full timeKacper Adamus to win
79.7%
79.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
151312109111210––
H2H Kacper Adamus 4–0 Kamil Kowalski Kamil Kowalski has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Adamus beat Kowalski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:0379.7%Our read84.7%to break even at 1.18
short by 5.0pp84.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.18 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.18 (78%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Adamus
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1347 vs Kowalski 1127
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 220 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Kowalski 20%
Adamus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 40% vs Kowalski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +1 · Kowalski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% · Strong (leans Adamus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (60%) is below what odds imply (85%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.18 / Kowalski 4.10
Signal prob.80% / 20%
Edge (Adamus)-5.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13252433
Adamus1.18
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 355 of 583
Up 2–0, closes it97% 198 of 205
Up 1–0, closes it79% 288 of 367
Kowalski4.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog17% won 31 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back6% 7 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeAdamus4wins
AwayKowalski0wins
2 of 4 to a deciderAdamus leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus100%4 of 4
AwayKowalskin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus4Kowalski0n = 4Adamus took 4 of 4
S2Adamus2Kowalski2n = 4split evenly
S3Adamus1Kowalski3n = 4Kowalski took 3 of 4
S4Adamus3Kowalski0n = 3Adamus took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricAdamusKowalskiA − KBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match46.538.2+8.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusKowalskiBasisWin rate · lifetime923 / 1699 vs 36 / 19954.3%18.1%923 / 1699 vs 36 / 199Avg sets wonper match2.11.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.533.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.18/Kowalski 4.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.7%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 6 · 03:05K. Adamus4815129123K. Kowalski44131011101
WOct 5 · 21:05K. Adamus51119911113K. Kowalski4491111582
WSep 30 · 12:40K. Adamus361411113K. Kowalski2712690
WSep 30 · 06:30K. Adamus511110811113K. Kowalski3881211522
K. Adamus10
WOct 6 · 01:30K. Adamus1.951212113W. Urban1.75101070LOct 6 · 00:30D. Dytko2.001114113K. Adamus1.7171280LOct 5 · 23:50K. Adamus2.35791371P. Gumulinski1.53111111113WOct 5 · 22:20K. Adamus1.722111111113D. Dytko2.0011913552WOct 5 · 21:05K. Adamus1.20119911113K. Kowalski4.2091111582LOct 5 · 19:55K. Adamus2.259990W. Urban1.551111113LOct 5 · 18:45L. Oracz1.7511156113K. Adamus1.909131181WOct 5 · 17:55K. Adamus1.951111113P. Gumulinski1.758690LOct 3 · 08:45K. Adamus1.879780W. Pytlas1.841111113LOct 3 · 07:10K. Adamus2.0081013101P. Polok1.70111211123
K. Kowalski10
WOct 6 · 01:50D. Dytko1.329740K. Kowalski3.001111113LOct 6 · 01:10K. Kowalski5.109119101P. Gumulinski1.1211911123LOct 6 · 00:10K. Kowalski3.86118741L. Oracz1.2281111113LOct 5 · 22:40K. Kowalski4.6041110101W. Urban1.1711912123LOct 5 · 21:05K. Adamus1.20119911113K. Kowalski4.2091111582WOct 5 · 20:20L. Oracz1.27121111772K. Kowalski3.351013211113WOct 5 · 19:30K. Kowalski5.757101111113P. Gumulinski1.1211124942LOct 5 · 18:20K. Kowalski3.101125111D. Dytko1.3051111133LOct 5 · 04:40K. Kowalski4.803860W. Urban1.161111113WOct 5 · 03:05J. Nowak2.1868111162K. Kowalski1.62111199113
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