TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Klement vs Adam Brazda 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191161214115––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched: 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeMilan Klement to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Klement above · Adam Brazda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 79 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Milan Klement at 63.1%
79 points played in total.
H2H Milan Klement 9–7 Adam Brazda Adam Brazda has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1963.1%Our read67.6%to break even at 1.48
short by 4.5pp67.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.48 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.48 (62%)
Klement
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Klement
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Klement 1576 vs Brazda 1600
Brazda
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Klement 20% vs Brazda 0%
Klement
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Klement 30% vs Brazda 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Klement -4 · Brazda -6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Klement) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brazda form (0%) is below what odds imply (41%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKlement 1.48 / Brazda 2.45
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Klement)-4.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13250713
Klement1.48
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 112 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it91% 59 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it70% 79 of 113
Brazda2.45
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 32 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back31% 14 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKlement7wins
AwayBrazda3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKlement leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKlement85.7%6 of 7
AwayBrazda66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Klement7Brazda3n = 10Klement took 7 of 10
S2Klement5Brazda5n = 10split evenly
S3Klement5Brazda5n = 10split evenly
S4Klement5Brazda0n = 5Klement took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKlementBrazdaK − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.329.0+7.3per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKlementBrazdaBasisWin rate · lifetime444 / 880 vs 182 / 39350.5%46.3%444 / 880 vs 182 / 393Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KlementKlement 1.48/Brazda 2.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.1%
Klement · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Klement won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMar 4 · 15:00M. Klement331111113A. Brazda168530
WFeb 17 · 22:19M. Klement43111011113A. Brazda31512771
WFeb 17 · 20:30M. Klement331111113A. Brazda197750
WFeb 10 · 19:30M. Klement506111111113A. Brazda3711213832
WJan 28 · 22:30M. Klement4111118113A. Brazda23621141
LJan 28 · 21:00M. Klement4411891152A. Brazda46611117113
LNov 13 · 22:01M. Klement26101060A. Brazda351212113
LNov 13 · 19:00M. Klement197480A. Brazda331111113
WAug 28 · 17:04M. Klement4112711113A. Brazda351011861
WAug 28 · 15:00M. Klement331111113A. Brazda155550
M. Klement10
LOct 5 · 19:00M. Klement1.40111299102L. Tonar2.756101111123LOct 5 · 18:00M. Vondrak2.0011116113M. Klement1.73691181LOct 4 · 21:03R. Pacha2.30511411113M. Klement1.5511811392LOct 4 · 20:30M. Klement1.36531111102J. Zuzanek3.00111199123WOct 4 · 19:00M. Klement2.3881111113D. Hofman1.53116631LOct 4 · 18:00R. Pacha1.4411116113M. Klement2.63381131LOct 3 · 13:30M. Regner1.859111011133M. Klement1.85119128112WOct 3 · 12:00M. Klement2.2011911113M. Sychra1.61511991LOct 3 · 11:30M. Regner1.831121112113M. Klement1.83131191012WOct 3 · 10:00M. Klement1.5081111113J. Zuzanek2.50112771
A. Brazda10
LOct 5 · 19:30A. Brazda1.577590M. Vondrak2.251111113LOct 5 · 18:30L. Tonar2.30911911113A. Brazda1.5511611852LOct 2 · 21:03R. Rose1.4481211113A. Brazda2.631110241LOct 2 · 20:30O. Svacha1.441110613113A. Brazda2.63412111152LOct 2 · 19:30A. Brazda2.7510790R. Rose1.401211113LOct 2 · 18:30R. Wagner1.61119411113A. Brazda2.2041111562WSep 30 · 17:00A. Brazda1.101116113S. Kasnik5.3071490WSep 30 · 16:00S. Kasnik2.256870A. Brazda1.571111113LSep 30 · 15:00J. Louda1.501281111113A. Brazda2.5014110462LSep 30 · 14:30A. Brazda2.2510890M. Pikous1.571211113
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