TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jerzy Pelka vs Pawel Polok 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11513116111614––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:08 and never touched: 59.2% is still 59.2%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
59.2%
59.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
11513116111614––
H2H Jerzy Pelka 1–0 Pawel Polok Pawel Polok has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:0859.2%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
clears by 0.4pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Polok
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1393 vs Polok 1426
Polok
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 20% vs Polok 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 60% vs Polok 40%
Pelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka -2 · Polok -3
Polok
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Polok) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (20%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 2.00 / Polok 1.70
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Polok)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13246976
Pelka2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 87 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back18% 15 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Polok1.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 134 of 206
Up 2–0, closes it95% 78 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it83% 110 of 132
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePelka1wins
AwayPolok0wins
Pelka leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPelkaPolokPelka − PolokBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match46.041.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime447 / 941 vs 182 / 28747.5%63.4%447 / 941 vs 182 / 287Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PolokPelka 2.00/Polok 1.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.2%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 5 · 07:10J. Pelka4611136163P. Polok4151111141
J. Pelka10
LOct 5 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.75101111113J. Pelka1.90127671LOct 2 · 16:40K. Hetnar1.6611611113J. Pelka2.10811931WOct 2 · 15:55P. Slosarczyk2.451187131J. Pelka1.4581111153LOct 2 · 13:55P. Wiciok1.9781613113J. Pelka1.7511141161LOct 2 · 13:10G. Wichowski2.0881111113J. Pelka1.68113571WOct 2 · 11:30L. Bernacki2.3581191172J. Pelka1.50118117113WOct 2 · 10:40K. Hetnar1.84119961J. Pelka1.8871111113WOct 2 · 09:55P. Slosarczyk2.3511970J. Pelka1.501311113WOct 2 · 07:55P. Wiciok—871191J. Pelka—11119113WOct 2 · 07:10L. Bernacki2.10118751J. Pelka1.6681111113
P. Polok10
LOct 5 · 05:30G. Wichowski—12911133P. Polok—10119111LOct 4 · 14:40P. Polok1.5011940J. Jesiek2.501311113LOct 4 · 13:05P. Polok1.5011811792D. Swider2.50711611113WOct 4 · 11:50P. Polok1.3311127113R. Idaczyk3.257101121LOct 4 · 10:10P. Polok1.835770W. Wojtaszczyk1.831111113WOct 4 · 09:00P. Polok1.33121113113W. Buczynski3.251481151WOct 4 · 07:45W. Wojtaszczyk1.83891151P. Polok1.8311119113WOct 4 · 06:55D. Swider1.91117140P. Polok1.801311163LOct 4 · 06:05P. Polok1.44510120J. Jesiek2.631112143LOct 4 · 04:30P. Polok1.33711851W. Buczynski3.2511711113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.