TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Sikon vs Adam Ruszkiewicz 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
111511411––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:08 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Ruszkiewicz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
43 points played in total.
Set by set
111511411––––
H2H Mateusz Sikon 4–4 Adam Ruszkiewicz Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 11h before this match
Ruszkiewicz beat Sikon 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:0854.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.83
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.83 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Ruszkiewicz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sikon 1337 vs Ruszkiewicz 1367
Ruszkiewicz
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sikon 60% vs Ruszkiewicz 40%
Sikon
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sikon 40% vs Ruszkiewicz 60%
Ruszkiewicz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sikon +2 · Ruszkiewicz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Ruszkiewicz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruszkiewicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSikon 1.83 / Ruszkiewicz 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ruszkiewicz)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13246250
Sikon1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Ruszkiewicz1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSikon4wins
AwayRuszkiewicz4wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSikon66.7%2 of 3
AwayRuszkiewicz60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sikon3Ruszkiewicz5n = 8Ruszkiewicz took 5 of 8
S2Sikon4Ruszkiewicz4n = 8split evenly
S3Sikon5Ruszkiewicz3n = 8Sikon took 5 of 8
S4Sikon4Ruszkiewicz2n = 6Sikon took 4 of 6
S5Sikon1Ruszkiewicz2n = 3Ruszkiewicz took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricSikonRuszkiewiczS − RBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match36.437.6−1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSikonRuszkiewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 493 vs 343 / 89541.4%38.3%204 / 493 vs 343 / 895Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RuszkiewiczSikon 1.83/Ruszkiewicz 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ruszkiewicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ruszkiewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 4 · 15:10M. Sikon25341171A. Ruszkiewicz4011117113
LSep 29 · 04:25M. Sikon226790A. Ruszkiewicz331111113
WAug 28 · 21:45M. Sikon48612811113A. Ruszkiewicz41111011182
LAug 28 · 17:45M. Sikon3411411532A. Ruszkiewicz47811611113
WAug 2 · 23:10M. Sikon3911116113A. Ruszkiewicz38991191
WAug 2 · 17:10M. Sikon4071111113A. Ruszkiewicz35118881
WJul 6 · 13:05M. Sikon331111113A. Ruszkiewicz175660
LJul 6 · 06:55M. Sikon501011111172A. Ruszkiewicz50121395113
M. Sikon10
WOct 5 · 00:45G. Sawicki2.005111291M. Sikon1.73111310113WOct 5 · 00:00M. Guzik1.75611771M. Sikon1.9511811113LOct 4 · 23:10M. Sikon—118591P. Ostachowski—71111113WOct 4 · 22:00M. Sikon1.90121111113M. Adamus1.80144691LOct 4 · 20:45M. Sikon1.601011581P. Ostachowski2.2012911113LOct 4 · 19:10M. Sikon—1111541M. Guzik—13911113LOct 4 · 18:00M. Sikon1.7811741172M. Adamus1.93811119113LOct 4 · 16:25M. Sikon1.801011711102G. Sawicki1.91127117123LOct 4 · 15:10M. Sikon1.90341171A. Ruszkiewicz1.8011117113WOct 4 · 04:40G. Sawicki1.9510511101M. Sikon1.7012114123
A. Ruszkiewicz10
WOct 5 · 01:35P. Ostachowski—411861A. Ruszkiewicz—11811113WOct 4 · 23:35G. Sawicki2.15281391A. Ruszkiewicz1.60111111113LOct 4 · 22:50M. Adamus1.86911117113A. Ruszkiewicz1.8011761162LOct 4 · 21:10M. Guzik1.6051111113A. Ruszkiewicz2.15116881LOct 4 · 20:20M. Adamus1.9511119113A. Ruszkiewicz1.70851161LOct 4 · 19:35P. Ostachowski2.5331211113A. Ruszkiewicz1.471110851WOct 4 · 17:35G. Sawicki2.65411981A. Ruszkiewicz1.4211911113WOct 4 · 16:50M. Guzik1.4681511141A. Ruszkiewicz2.50111313163WOct 4 · 15:10M. Sikon1.90341171A. Ruszkiewicz1.8011117113WOct 3 · 04:40J. Michalski2.657580A. Ruszkiewicz1.401111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.