TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Sushko vs Pavlo Shulhachyk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Ivan Sushko
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911117911117711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Sushko to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Sushko above · Pavlo Shulhachyk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 94 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Ivan Sushko at 62.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Sushko 4–2 Pavlo Shulhachyk Pavlo Shulhachyk has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:5762.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Sushko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Sushko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sushko 1532 vs Shulhachyk 1441
Sushko
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sushko 80% vs Shulhachyk 60%
Sushko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sushko 60% vs Shulhachyk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sushko -1 · Shulhachyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Sushko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shulhachyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSushko 1.533 / Shulhachyk 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Sushko)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245481
Sushko1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 88 days ago (Jul 09) · back after a break
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite86% won 12 of 14
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Shulhachyk2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 18 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back20% 5 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSushko4wins
AwayShulhachyk2wins
Sushko leads 4–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSushkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayShulhachyk40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sushko1Shulhachyk5n = 6Shulhachyk took 5 of 6
S2Sushko6Shulhachyk0n = 6Sushko took 6 of 6
S3Sushko4Shulhachyk2n = 6Sushko took 4 of 6
S4Sushko3Shulhachyk2n = 5Sushko took 3 of 5
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSushkoShulhachykSushko − ShulhachykBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match37.334.0+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSushkoShulhachykBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 114 vs 155 / 27256.1%57%64 / 114 vs 155 / 272Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.435.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SushkoSushko 1.53/Shulhachyk 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Sushko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Shulhachyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WMar 12 · 10:30I. Sushko4391211113P. Shulhachyk341110941
WMar 7 · 18:38I. Sushko3851111113P. Shulhachyk33117961
WMar 7 · 14:00I. Sushko331111113P. Shulhachyk216690
LFeb 25 · 17:30I. Sushko399111091P. Shulhachyk4011612113
LFeb 21 · 06:30I. Sushko26511371P. Shulhachyk4011711113
WFeb 12 · 17:00I. Sushko45101111133P. Shulhachyk361285111
I. Sushko10
LJul 9 · 10:00I. Sushko2.5094100O. Torianyk1.501111123WJul 9 · 09:00I. Sushko1.6113117133M. Pohorilyi2.2011811111WJul 9 · 08:30I. Sushko1.4411119133S. Sideltsev2.636111111WJul 9 · 07:30S. Sideltsev2.0010650I. Sushko1.731211113WJul 9 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi2.205511111I. Sushko1.6111114133LJul 9 · 05:00O. Torianyk1.441111114113I. Sushko2.6313591172WJul 8 · 17:38I. Sushko1.9110101213133M. Pohorilyi1.8012121011112LJul 8 · 16:00R. Hryhoriev1.671212113I. Sushko2.10101020LJul 8 · 14:30O. Torianyk1.531111113I. Sushko2.387760WJul 8 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi1.919840I. Sushko1.801111113
P. Shulhachyk10
LOct 5 · 12:00V. Simchuk2.201111113P. Shulhachyk1.612660WOct 1 · 17:08P. Kolesnik1.4013811942P. Shulhachyk2.751111711113WOct 1 · 15:30I. Dubinin1.83911891P. Shulhachyk1.8311811113LOct 1 · 14:30P. Shulhachyk2.389660P. Kolesnik1.531111113WOct 1 · 13:30M. Pohorilyi1.6771190P. Shulhachyk2.101113113WOct 1 · 12:30P. Shulhachyk2.38111110123S. Sideltsev1.536812101LSep 18 · 09:00S. Honcharenko3.501111123P. Shulhachyk1.2855100WSep 18 · 07:30N. Priadko2.25111310111P. Shulhachyk1.5771512133LSep 18 · 06:00I. Sorochan2.101111113P. Shulhachyk1.674640LSep 18 · 05:00M. Pohorilyi1.611112113P. Shulhachyk2.2051060
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