TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Volynets vs Eduard Populovskyi 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1144111171210––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:23 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Volynets to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Volynets above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 70 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Oleh Volynets at 59.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Volynets 6–6 Eduard Populovskyi Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:2359.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Volynets
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volynets 1454 vs Populovskyi 1389
Volynets
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volynets 80% vs Populovskyi 60%
Volynets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volynets 60% vs Populovskyi 40%
Volynets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Volynets +1 · Populovskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Volynets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolynets 1.571 / Populovskyi 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Volynets)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245208
Volynets1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite51% won 74 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it79% 30 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it63% 44 of 70
Populovskyi2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 52 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back22% 21 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVolynets5wins
AwayPopulovskyi5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolynets33.3%2 of 6
AwayPopulovskyi25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volynets6Populovskyi4n = 10Volynets took 6 of 10
S2Volynets4Populovskyi6n = 10Populovskyi took 6 of 10
S3Volynets4Populovskyi6n = 10Populovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Volynets5Populovskyi3n = 8Volynets took 5 of 8
S5Volynets2Populovskyi2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVolynetsPopulovskyiV − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.538.50.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolynetsPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime323 / 609 vs 338 / 70453%48%323 / 609 vs 338 / 704Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VolynetsVolynets 1.57/Populovskyi 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Volynets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Volynets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 08:30O. Volynets50861114113E. Populovskyi42111131252
WAug 2 · 06:30O. Volynets3811115113E. Populovskyi32881151
LMar 25 · 10:35O. Volynets45111151082E. Populovskyi48591112113
LMar 24 · 07:30O. Volynets36159571E. Populovskyi46131111113
LMar 20 · 10:35O. Volynets23114351E. Populovskyi3961111113
LMar 19 · 07:30O. Volynets153570E. Populovskyi331111113
WMar 17 · 10:00O. Volynets331111113E. Populovskyi178360
LMar 12 · 12:35O. Volynets4513451492E. Populovskyi5611111112113
WMar 10 · 14:40O. Volynets579111111153E. Populovskyi43111324132
WMar 5 · 08:00O. Volynets4391211113E. Populovskyi291110351
O. Volynets10
LOct 5 · 07:30O. Volynets1.40121360A. Kovalenko2.751415113WOct 5 · 06:00O. Volynets2.101111113S. Solomko1.679930WSep 30 · 11:00O. Shyshman2.50119581O. Volynets1.5071111113LSep 30 · 10:00S. Solomko2.201111113O. Volynets1.613960WSep 30 · 08:30E. Populovskyi2.25111131252O. Volynets1.57861114113WSep 30 · 06:30A. Kovalenko2.637670O. Volynets1.441111113WSep 30 · 04:30O. Osadchyi1.53118111082O. Volynets2.38611912113WSep 29 · 11:35O. Lipeiko2.631111451O. Volynets1.4471311113LSep 29 · 10:35A. Kovalenko3.751111113O. Volynets1.258980WSep 29 · 09:05I. Emets2.255870O. Volynets1.571111113
E. Populovskyi10
LOct 5 · 06:30A. Kovalenko1.9111118163E. Populovskyi1.807611141LOct 4 · 11:50E. Populovskyi4.333870S. Solomko1.201111113WOct 4 · 10:20E. Populovskyi2.7513136143A. Martyniuk1.40111111121WOct 4 · 08:50E. Populovskyi1.831814511113A. Kurtenko1.83201211782WOct 4 · 07:20E. Populovskyi1.9111115123A. Kovalenko1.805711101LOct 4 · 05:50E. Populovskyi3.5010980O. Osadchyi1.281211113WOct 3 · 19:00A. Kovalenko1.8091111872E. Populovskyi1.91114811113LOct 3 · 17:30E. Populovskyi4.007940S. Solomko1.221111103LOct 3 · 15:30O. Leonenko2.00111132103E. Populovskyi1.7347111162LSep 30 · 08:30E. Populovskyi2.25111131252O. Volynets1.57861114113
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