TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Skvor vs Jaroslav Sindler 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711117711119118
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:33 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Skvor above · Jaroslav Sindler below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 93 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Ondrej Skvor at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Skvor 4–6 Jaroslav Sindler Ondrej Skvor has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:3354.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skvor
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Sindler
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvor 1457 vs Sindler 1415
Skvor
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvor 80% vs Sindler 40%
Skvor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvor 70% vs Sindler 30%
Skvor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvor +1 · Sindler -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skvor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvor 1.80 / Sindler 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skvor)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13240677
Skvor1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 58 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it64% 35 of 55
Sindler1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog55% won 72 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back33% 20 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvor4wins
AwaySindler6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSindler leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvor50%3 of 6
AwaySindler75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvor6Sindler4n = 10Skvor took 6 of 10
S2Skvor7Sindler3n = 10Skvor took 7 of 10
S3Skvor5Sindler5n = 10split evenly
S4Skvor2Sindler5n = 7Sindler took 5 of 7
S5Skvor1Sindler3n = 4Sindler took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvorSindlerSkvor − SindlerBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.737.7+2.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvorSindlerBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 198 vs 436 / 83851.5%52%102 / 198 vs 436 / 838Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.940.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorSkvor 1.80/Sindler 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skvor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 14:10O. Skvor347115111J. Sindler4111611133
LSep 25 · 06:45O. Skvor4112115942J. Sindler521091111113
WSep 5 · 15:10O. Skvor331111113J. Sindler198560
WAug 23 · 12:10O. Skvor331111113J. Sindler205870
LAug 15 · 06:15O. Skvor43101111111J. Sindler4712139133
LAug 1 · 12:46O. Skvor43121071132J. Sindler461012112113
LAug 1 · 12:10O. Skvor371191071J. Sindler4171112113
LJul 18 · 17:20O. Skvor4691171182J. Sindler48117118113
WJul 18 · 15:10O. Skvor541211119113J. Sindler4614931192
WJul 11 · 14:40O. Skvor331111113J. Sindler175570
O. Skvor10
LOct 4 · 10:40O. Skvor1.83771281M. Lorenc1.83111110113WSep 29 · 21:15O. Skvor1.671111113M. Janik2.106770LSep 29 · 20:10O. Skvor1.7351114101K. Zeman2.0011616123WSep 29 · 18:40D. Osvald1.838980O. Skvor1.831111113WSep 29 · 18:10M. Janik1.8389100O. Skvor1.831111123WSep 29 · 16:43O. Skvor1.8371111113M. Janik1.83119591WSep 29 · 15:40M. Janik1.8012711772O. Skvor1.911011711113LSep 29 · 15:10M. Lorenc1.73611511113O. Skvor2.0011711682LSep 29 · 14:10O. Skvor1.807115111J. Sindler1.9111611133WSep 27 · 20:39O. Skvor1.61911212113V. Reska2.20119111082
J. Sindler10
LOct 4 · 11:10J. Sindler—5611101V. Molin—11117123LOct 2 · 12:38J. Sindler1.539770P. Chvojka2.381111113WOct 2 · 11:40P. Chvojka2.10111112262J. Sindler1.67961411113LOct 2 · 11:10P. Sturma2.0051111113J. Sindler1.73117991WOct 2 · 10:10J. Sindler1.807111112133P. Jokiel1.911181310112LOct 2 · 08:40P. Jokiel1.7391111113J. Sindler2.00112881LOct 2 · 07:40P. Chlad1.36411511113J. Sindler3.0011611872LOct 2 · 07:10J. Matus2.0091111113J. Sindler1.73119691LOct 2 · 06:10J. Sindler1.538980P. Jokiel2.381111113WSep 29 · 14:10O. Skvor1.807115111J. Sindler1.9111611133
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