TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Bondarchuk vs Oleksandr Zhurba 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119511119––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:26 and never touched: 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhurba to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Bondarchuk above · Oleksandr Zhurba below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Oleksandr Zhurba at 66.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Bondarchuk 5–16 Oleksandr Zhurba Oleksandr Bondarchuk has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 13h before this match
Bondarchuk beat Zhurba 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2666.1%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.2pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zhurba
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-16 in 21
Zhurba
Wrong
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarchuk 1940 vs Zhurba 1955
Zhurba
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarchuk 80% vs Zhurba 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarchuk 70% vs Zhurba 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarchuk +4 · Zhurba +1
Bondarchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Zhurba) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhurba form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarchuk 2.625 / Zhurba 1.444
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Zhurba)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240357
Bondarchuk2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 20 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back22% 5 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Zhurba1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite72% won 155 of 214
Up 2–0, closes it97% 93 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it87% 119 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondarchuk5wins
AwayZhurba5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarchuk60%3 of 5
AwayZhurba60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarchuk5Zhurba5n = 10split evenly
S2Bondarchuk5Zhurba5n = 10split evenly
S3Bondarchuk6Zhurba4n = 10Bondarchuk took 6 of 10
S4Bondarchuk3Zhurba5n = 8Zhurba took 5 of 8
S5Bondarchuk4Zhurba3n = 7Bondarchuk took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarchukZhurbaB − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.141.6−0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarchukZhurbaBasisWin rate · lifetime180 / 314 vs 447 / 67857.3%65.9%180 / 314 vs 447 / 678Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZhurbaBondarchuk 2.63/Zhurba 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Zhurba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bondarchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 18 · 09:50O. Bondarchuk47571113113O. Zhurba45111161162
WSep 17 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk351311113O. Zhurba2511770
WJun 27 · 10:50O. Bondarchuk49111197113O. Zhurba3639111122
WJun 26 · 19:20O. Bondarchuk43115115113O. Zhurba4471181172
LJun 12 · 19:20O. Bondarchuk2661190O. Zhurba351113113
LApr 24 · 17:50O. Bondarchuk4211128832O. Zhurba529101111113
LMar 21 · 07:20O. Bondarchuk48108111182O. Zhurba48121168113
LMar 20 · 16:20O. Bondarchuk3911115842O. Zhurba48961111113
O. Bondarchuk10
LOct 4 · 07:30D. Neborak3.25211117113O. Bondarchuk1.3311881102WOct 4 · 06:30O. Bondarchuk1.331211113D. Neborak3.2510830WOct 4 · 04:30O. Bondarchuk1.531113123O. Shkurupii2.38911100WOct 3 · 17:30O. Bondarchuk1.36111011113D. Neborak3.00912781WOct 3 · 16:30O. Bondarchuk3.25681111113O. Zhurba1.3311116832WOct 3 · 15:30O. Shkurupii2.255640O. Bondarchuk1.571111113LOct 3 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.5779140O. Shkurupii2.251111163LOct 3 · 13:00O. Zhurba1.36116121183O. Bondarchuk3.0041114772WOct 3 · 12:30D. Neborak3.0011911942O. Bondarchuk1.36111811113WSep 18 · 12:20O. Ivchuk4.004890O. Bondarchuk1.221111113
O. Zhurba10
WOct 4 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113O. Shkurupii3.505990WOct 4 · 05:00D. Neborak4.33126111472O. Zhurba1.201411812113WOct 3 · 17:00O. Shkurupii3.507380O. Zhurba1.281111103LOct 3 · 16:30O. Bondarchuk3.25681111113O. Zhurba1.3311116832WOct 3 · 15:00D. Neborak4.506590O. Zhurba1.171111113WOct 3 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.1711119113D. Neborak4.50991131WOct 3 · 13:00O. Zhurba1.36116121183O. Bondarchuk3.0041114772WOct 3 · 12:00O. Zhurba1.251111113O. Shkurupii3.759790WSep 18 · 11:50O. Pavlyuk6.50711471O. Zhurba1.1011711113LSep 18 · 09:50O. Zhurba1.30111161162O. Bondarchuk3.40571113113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.