TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Masternak vs Michal Lysakowski 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181181311––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Masternak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
62 points played in total.
Set by set
1181181311––––
H2H Jan Masternak 67–52 Michal Lysakowski Michal Lysakowski has won 52 of their 119 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Masternak beat Lysakowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2854.0%Our read43.5%to break even at 2.30
clears by 10.5pp43.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.30 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (60%)
Lysakowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
67-52 in 119
Masternak
Correct
gap of 15 in 119, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Masternak 1523 vs Lysakowski 1672
Lysakowski
Wrong
both rated, 150 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Masternak 80% vs Lysakowski 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Masternak 50% vs Lysakowski 70%
Lysakowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Masternak +3 · Lysakowski +1
Masternak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Masternak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysakowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMasternak 2.30 / Lysakowski 1.55
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Masternak)+10.5pp
TT Cup · #13238902
Masternak2.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 106 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back24% 37 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 91
Lysakowski1.55
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 194 of 339
Up 2–0, closes it94% 121 of 129
Up 1–0, closes it79% 164 of 209
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMasternak6wins
AwayLysakowski4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderMasternak leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMasternak80%4 of 5
AwayLysakowski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Masternak5Lysakowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Masternak6Lysakowski4n = 10Masternak took 6 of 10
S3Masternak5Lysakowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Masternak2Lysakowski7n = 9Lysakowski took 7 of 9
S5Masternak5Lysakowski2n = 7Masternak took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMasternakLysakowskiM − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.845.5+0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMasternakLysakowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime409 / 934 vs 667 / 132743.8%50.3%409 / 934 vs 667 / 1327Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MasternakMasternak 2.30/Lysakowski 1.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Masternak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Masternak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 10:35J. Masternak5810111115113M. Lysakowski4812561782
LSep 25 · 07:00J. Masternak215880M. Lysakowski331111113
WSep 24 · 10:00J. Masternak48117118113M. Lysakowski4681181182
LSep 1 · 12:00J. Masternak22116141M. Lysakowski4291111113
WAug 30 · 23:45J. Masternak49111116113M. Lysakowski37291881
LAug 30 · 19:05J. Masternak549111111122M. Lysakowski52118613143
WAug 16 · 16:05J. Masternak581591211113M. Lysakowski551311101382
WAug 14 · 12:40J. Masternak5711111311113M. Lysakowski5179151372
WAug 14 · 12:00J. Masternak46511811113M. Lysakowski4011511672
LAug 13 · 05:00J. Masternak4591112762M. Lysakowski511181011113
J. Masternak10
WOct 3 · 12:35J. Masternak2.051110911113S. Wloszek1.7061211992WOct 3 · 10:35M. Lysakowski1.4412561782J. Masternak2.5010111115113WOct 3 · 09:35J. Masternak2.001111113B. Molka1.717990LOct 3 · 08:35J. Chojnacki2.15111011113J. Masternak1.62312491WOct 3 · 07:05J. Masternak2.0511148113M. Burkacki1.684121181LOct 1 · 13:00M. Galus1.14129119113J. Masternak4.89101181162LOct 1 · 12:00J. Masternak2.75101050D. Stapor1.401212113LOct 1 · 10:00P. Gola1.50121111113J. Masternak2.35141781WOct 1 · 08:00M. Galus1.401197101J. Masternak2.7581111123LOct 1 · 07:00M. Burkacki1.47111159113J. Masternak2.5079111162
M. Lysakowski10
WOct 3 · 12:05M. Lysakowski1.38911119113J. Chojnacki2.8211661172LOct 3 · 10:35M. Lysakowski1.4412561782J. Masternak2.5010111115113WOct 3 · 09:05M. Lysakowski1.361211113M. Burkacki2.9310880WOct 3 · 07:35M. Lysakowski1.4081111113B. Molka2.75119971WOct 3 · 06:05M. Lysakowski1.4311101311113S. Wloszek2.6581215982WOct 2 · 13:00M. Burkacki2.7587100M. Lysakowski1.411111123WOct 2 · 12:00M. Galus1.95124100M. Lysakowski1.741411123LOct 2 · 10:30M. Lysakowski1.1971111131J. Chojnacki4.3011813153WOct 2 · 08:30P. Gola1.9112510101M. Lysakowski1.78101112123LOct 2 · 06:30M. Burkacki2.751111123M. Lysakowski1.4099100
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