TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Karol Kufel vs Mikolaj Lukaszewski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012117311116116
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:07 and never touched: 65.0% is still 65.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Kufel to win
65.0%
65.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
1012117311116116
H2H Karol Kufel 1–1 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:0765.0%Our read67.1%to break even at 1.49
short by 2.1pp67.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.49 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.49 (62%)
Kufel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kufel 1469 vs Lukaszewski 1264
Kufel
Correct
both rated, 205 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kufel 60% vs Lukaszewski 20%
Kufel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kufel 60% vs Lukaszewski 10%
Kufel
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kufel +3 · Lukaszewski -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Kufel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (20%) is below what odds imply (41%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKufel 1.49 / Lukaszewski 2.45
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Kufel)-2.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13231955
Kufel1.49
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite71% won 10 of 14
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Lukaszewski2.45
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest22%takes the first set · 2 of 9
As underdog41% won 258 of 625
Down 0–1, comes back14% 46 of 333
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 182
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKufel1wins
AwayLukaszewski1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricKufelLukaszewskiK − LBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match30.533.0−2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKufelLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime23 / 39 vs 894 / 196259%45.6%23 / 39 vs 894 / 1962Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KufelKufel 1.49/Lukaszewski 2.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65%
Kufel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kufel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 20 · 14:15K. Kufel4071111113M. Lukaszewski33118951
LSep 20 · 03:00K. Kufel218580M. Lukaszewski331111113
K. Kufel10
WOct 2 · 06:30R. Stapor1.77413101382K. Kufel1.9511111211113WOct 2 · 05:40B. Warpas1.95121080K. Kufel1.751412113WOct 2 · 04:55K. Kufel1.605111111113J. Przewlocki2.1511661382LOct 2 · 03:50K. Kufel—1112961F. Krcil—91411113LSep 27 · 14:35A. Wos1.6591111113K. Kufel2.10115541WSep 27 · 13:25K. Kufel1.90119811113D. Wasilewski1.8081111752WSep 27 · 12:10B. Mleczko1.9812841162K. Kufel1.731011113113LSep 27 · 10:55G. Kesik1.73511811143K. Kufel1.98115116122WSep 27 · 09:20D. Poloszczanski2.309970K. Kufel1.551111113LSep 27 · 07:40K. Kufel2.50113991A. Wos1.4571111113
M. Lukaszewski10
LOct 2 · 07:20J. Przewlocki1.71111511113M. Lukaszewski2.00217341LOct 2 · 05:15R. Stapor1.361111113M. Lukaszewski2.953980LOct 2 · 04:30F. Krcil1.621511113M. Lukaszewski2.1713530WOct 2 · 03:00B. Warpas1.8049111172M. Lukaszewski1.90111175113LOct 1 · 07:40B. Warpas1.9111118113M. Lukaszewski1.78671181LOct 1 · 07:00M. Minda1.3711611123M. Lukaszewski2.707119101LOct 1 · 06:20M. Lukaszewski2.851110651R. Stapor1.3531211113LOct 1 · 04:30M. Lukaszewski1.85109110K. Sulkowski1.801211133LOct 1 · 03:50M. Kukawka1.273M. Lukaszewski3.350LSep 30 · 07:40B. Warpas1.8011124113M. Lukaszewski1.807101171
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