TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Blazej Warpas vs Mikolaj Lukaszewski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411911117115711
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:58 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBlazej Warpas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
411911117115711
H2H Blazej Warpas 29–18 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 18 of their 47 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 19h before this match
Warpas beat Lukaszewski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:5854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Warpas
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-18 in 47
Warpas
Wrong
gap of 11 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Warpas 1296 vs Lukaszewski 1286
Warpas
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Warpas 60% vs Lukaszewski 0%
Warpas
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Warpas 50% vs Lukaszewski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Warpas +2 · Lukaszewski -6
Lukaszewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Warpas) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (0%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWarpas 1.80 / Lukaszewski 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Warpas)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13228623
Warpas1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As favourite58% won 185 of 320
Up 2–0, closes it97% 90 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it83% 132 of 159
Lukaszewski1.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
As underdog41% won 259 of 625
Down 0–1, comes back14% 48 of 335
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 183
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWarpas7wins
AwayLukaszewski3wins
Warpas leads 7–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWarpas100%6 of 6
AwayLukaszewski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Warpas6Lukaszewski4n = 10Warpas took 6 of 10
S2Warpas8Lukaszewski2n = 10Warpas took 8 of 10
S3Warpas6Lukaszewski4n = 10Warpas took 6 of 10
S4Warpas3Lukaszewski2n = 5Warpas took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWarpasLukaszewskiW − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.632.3+3.3per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWarpasLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime429 / 831 vs 893 / 196351.6%45.5%429 / 831 vs 893 / 1963Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WarpasWarpas 1.80/Lukaszewski 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Warpas · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lukaszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 07:40B. Warpas4111118113M. Lukaszewski32671181
WSep 30 · 07:40B. Warpas3811124113M. Lukaszewski357101171
WAug 21 · 05:40B. Warpas331111113M. Lukaszewski215880
WAug 20 · 05:15B. Warpas331111113M. Lukaszewski238690
LAug 19 · 05:15B. Warpas33714120M. Lukaszewski411116143
LAug 18 · 03:00B. Warpas31881231M. Lukaszewski43111110113
LAug 17 · 03:25B. Warpas30511771M. Lukaszewski4011711113
WAug 9 · 11:50B. Warpas44111111113M. Lukaszewski34136691
WJul 8 · 17:20B. Warpas401114153M. Lukaszewski32712130
WJul 3 · 19:20B. Warpas331111113M. Lukaszewski224990
B. Warpas10
WOct 1 · 07:40B. Warpas1.9111118113M. Lukaszewski1.78671181WOct 1 · 06:40B. Warpas2.601111123M. Kukawka1.4286100LOct 1 · 05:15B. Warpas2.009890K. Sulkowski1.701111113WOct 1 · 04:10M. Minda1.331B. Warpas2.953LOct 1 · 03:25B. Warpas2.6591550R. Stapor1.421117113WSep 30 · 07:40B. Warpas1.8011124113M. Lukaszewski1.807101171LSep 30 · 06:30B. Warpas2.6441321182R. Stapor1.431111117113WSep 30 · 05:15B. Warpas1.981111113K. Sulkowski1.756580LSep 30 · 04:10M. Zwolinski2.201111113B. Warpas1.617760LSep 30 · 03:25B. Warpas2.7055100M. Kukawka1.411111123
M. Lukaszewski10
LOct 1 · 07:40B. Warpas1.9111118113M. Lukaszewski1.78671181LOct 1 · 07:00M. Minda1.3711611123M. Lukaszewski2.707119101LOct 1 · 06:20M. Lukaszewski2.851110651R. Stapor1.3531211113LOct 1 · 04:30M. Lukaszewski1.85109110K. Sulkowski1.801211133LOct 1 · 03:50M. Kukawka1.273M. Lukaszewski3.350LSep 30 · 07:40B. Warpas1.8011124113M. Lukaszewski1.807101171WSep 30 · 06:55M. Zwolinski1.95116591M. Lukaszewski1.7591111113WSep 30 · 06:05M. Lukaszewski3.601171411113M. Kukawka1.2561116772WSep 30 · 04:30M. Lukaszewski2.10111178113K. Sulkowski1.6568111172WSep 30 · 03:50R. Stapor1.46118861M. Lukaszewski2.5091111113
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