TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Kapik vs Maciej Kolek 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119116––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:10 and never touched: 60.4% is still 60.4%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
60.4%
60.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
56 points played in total.
Set by set
118119116––––
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 33–19 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 19 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:1060.4%Our read64.5%to break even at 1.55
short by 4.1pp64.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.55 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (59%)
Kapik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
33-19 in 52
Kapik
Correct
gap of 14 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1651 vs Kolek 1642
Kapik
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 20% vs Kolek 40%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 40% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik -3 · Kolek -1
Kapik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Kapik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.55 / Kolek 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Kapik)-4.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13231812
Kapik1.55
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 221 of 358
Up 2–0, closes it96% 105 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it77% 149 of 193
Kolek2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 181 of 453
Down 0–1, comes back22% 59 of 267
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik6wins
AwayKolek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKapik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik85.7%6 of 7
AwayKolek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik7Kolek3n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S2Kapik6Kolek4n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S3Kapik5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S4Kapik3Kolek4n = 7Kolek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikKolekKapik − KolekBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.334.8+1.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime1107 / 2082 vs 753 / 149553.2%50.4%1107 / 2082 vs 753 / 1495Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKapik 1.55/Kolek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.4%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 07:15K. Kapik331111113M. Kolek238960
WOct 1 · 10:30K. Kapik4011126113M. Kolek346101171
LOct 1 · 07:15K. Kapik49115129122M. Kolek482111011143
LSep 10 · 23:45K. Kapik197570M. Kolek331111113
WSep 1 · 22:35K. Kapik331111113M. Kolek189360
WAug 31 · 21:25K. Kapik3811115113M. Kolek29681141
WAug 28 · 12:10K. Kapik51118138113M. Kolek50811111192
LAug 26 · 22:10K. Kapik28311681M. Kolek4111811113
WAug 25 · 22:55K. Kapik43111011113M. Kolek31312881
LAug 25 · 00:10K. Kapik29611661M. Kolek4111811113
K. Kapik10
LOct 2 · 06:00M. Rutkowski1.85131157113K. Kapik1.85118111182LOct 2 · 04:50K. Wisniewski2.001111123K. Kapik1.7079100LOct 2 · 03:20J. Zochniak1.3711117113K. Kapik2.88861181WOct 1 · 13:50M. Olbrycht1.937980K. Kapik1.781111113LOct 1 · 13:00J. Kwapis2.1581111113K. Kapik1.62115561WOct 1 · 12:10K. Kapik1.8311711113P. Jendrzejewski1.88811701WOct 1 · 10:30K. Kapik1.5011126113M. Kolek2.506101171LOct 1 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz1.83129119113K. Kapik1.88101141172WOct 1 · 08:30M. Olbrycht2.0011681172K. Kapik1.70811118113LOct 1 · 07:15K. Kapik1.65115129122M. Kolek2.052111011143
M. Kolek10
LOct 2 · 08:05K. Wisniewski1.7512115113M. Kolek1.951081181LOct 2 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.901111123M. Kolek1.7588100WOct 2 · 04:25M. Rutkowski1.85511101162M. Kolek1.86119127113WOct 2 · 03:00P. Jendrzejewski1.6011116892M. Kolek2.15771111113LOct 1 · 14:15G. Poliniewicz1.6212511123M. Kolek2.2010116101LOct 1 · 13:25P. Jendrzejewski1.651111113M. Kolek2.104980WOct 1 · 11:20M. Olbrycht1.71810111182M. Kolek2.00111289113LOct 1 · 10:30K. Kapik1.5011126113M. Kolek2.506101171WOct 1 · 09:00J. Kwapis1.5257121182M. Kolek2.301111109113WOct 1 · 07:15K. Kapik1.65115129122M. Kolek2.052111011143
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