TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Chuhai vs Ruslan Ivanov 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119711611119911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:59 and never touched: 81.3% is still 81.3%
Graded at full timeRuslan Ivanov to win
81.3%
81.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Chuhai above · Ruslan Ivanov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Ruslan Ivanov at 81.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Chuhai 2–16 Ruslan Ivanov Serhii Chuhai has won 2 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5981.3%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
clears by 1.3pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Ivanov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-16 in 18
Ivanov
Correct
gap of 14 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chuhai 1785 vs Ivanov 1912
Ivanov
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chuhai 40% vs Ivanov 60%
Ivanov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chuhai 40% vs Ivanov 60%
Ivanov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chuhai -3 · Ivanov +2
Chuhai
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% · Strong (leans Ivanov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivanov form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChuhai 3.75 / Ivanov 1.25
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Ivanov)+1.3pp
Setka Cup · #13223646
Chuhai3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 77 of 233
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 83
Ivanov1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 25)
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite72% won 55 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChuhai2wins
AwayIvanov8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderIvanov leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChuhain = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayIvanov87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chuhai2Ivanov8n = 10Ivanov took 8 of 10
S2Chuhai4Ivanov6n = 10Ivanov took 6 of 10
S3Chuhai3Ivanov7n = 10Ivanov took 7 of 10
S4Chuhai3Ivanov5n = 8Ivanov took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChuhaiIvanovC − IBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.339.8−6.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChuhaiIvanovBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 947 vs 77 / 11450.7%67.5%480 / 947 vs 77 / 114Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
IvanovChuhai 3.75/Ivanov 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.3%
Ivanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ivanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 17:00S. Chuhai29711651R. Ivanov4211911113
LSep 25 · 12:00S. Chuhai236890R. Ivanov331111113
WSep 24 · 17:38S. Chuhai46412613113R. Ivanov521110111192
LSep 24 · 12:00S. Chuhai30711571R. Ivanov3911611113
LSep 11 · 17:29S. Chuhai27541171R. Ivanov3811115113
LSep 11 · 12:00S. Chuhai48713111162R. Ivanov48111547113
LAug 21 · 12:00S. Chuhai185490R. Ivanov331111113
WAug 20 · 16:00S. Chuhai43111011113R. Ivanov34812681
LAug 13 · 17:34S. Chuhai367118101R. Ivanov3911511123
LAug 13 · 15:00S. Chuhai33117691R. Ivanov4071111113
S. Chuhai10
LOct 1 · 15:00I. Fedoryshyn1.5713116113S. Chuhai2.251181141WOct 1 · 14:00S. Chuhai2.2571111113I. Fedoryshyn1.57116381LOct 1 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.1031261162A. Lushchyk1.671110119113LSep 29 · 16:59S. Chuhai2.254811101I. Fedoryshyn1.5711117123LSep 29 · 16:00I. Fedoryshyn1.4491112113S. Chuhai2.631151051LSep 29 · 14:30A. Lushchyk1.5791211113S. Chuhai2.251110451WSep 29 · 13:00M. Baday1.33711441S. Chuhai3.2511611113WSep 29 · 12:00A. Kasyanov1.675411101S. Chuhai2.1011118123LSep 25 · 17:00R. Ivanov1.2511911113S. Chuhai3.75711651WSep 25 · 16:30I. Fedoryshyn1.57111050S. Chuhai2.251312113
R. Ivanov10
WOct 1 · 14:30A. Lushchyk3.757117141R. Ivanov1.2511711163WOct 1 · 13:30I. Fedoryshyn1.731011581R. Ivanov2.0012611113WSep 25 · 17:00R. Ivanov1.2511911113S. Chuhai3.75711651WSep 25 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.801111113M. Baday1.914960LSep 25 · 15:30R. Ivanov1.91811651I. Fedoryshyn1.8011911113WSep 25 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.804820R. Ivanov1.911111113LSep 25 · 13:30M. Baday1.917111011123R. Ivanov1.80119126102WSep 25 · 12:00S. Chuhai3.406890R. Ivanov1.301111113LSep 24 · 17:38S. Chuhai4.00412613113R. Ivanov1.221110111192WSep 24 · 16:30M. Baday1.91612611102R. Ivanov1.801110115123
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