TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Poliniewicz vs Adrian Spychala 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117911311119911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched: 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeAdrian Spychala to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
117911311119911
H2H Grzegorz Poliniewicz 26–60 Adrian Spychala Grzegorz Poliniewicz has won 26 of their 86 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:2657.5%Our read59.9%to break even at 1.67
short by 2.4pp59.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.67 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Spychala
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-60 in 86
Spychala
Correct
gap of 34 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Poliniewicz 1726 vs Spychala 1719
Poliniewicz
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Poliniewicz 80% vs Spychala 20%
Poliniewicz
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Poliniewicz 70% vs Spychala 50%
Poliniewicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Poliniewicz +3 · Spychala -1
Poliniewicz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Spychala) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spychala form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPoliniewicz 2.10 / Spychala 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 58%
Edge (Spychala)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13221627
Poliniewicz2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 132 of 363
Down 0–1, comes back19% 40 of 209
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 125
Spychala1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 53 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it78% 36 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePoliniewicz6wins
AwaySpychala4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderPoliniewicz leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePoliniewicz83.3%5 of 6
AwaySpychala75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Poliniewicz6Spychala4n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S2Poliniewicz7Spychala3n = 10Poliniewicz took 7 of 10
S3Poliniewicz4Spychala6n = 10Spychala took 6 of 10
S4Poliniewicz4Spychala4n = 8split evenly
S5Poliniewicz4Spychala3n = 7Poliniewicz took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPoliniewiczSpychalaP − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.839.7+3.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPoliniewiczSpychalaBasisWin rate · lifetime1226 / 2102 vs 539 / 143358.3%37.6%1226 / 2102 vs 539 / 1433Avg sets wonper match2.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.035.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SpychalaPoliniewicz 2.10/Spychala 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.5%
Spychala · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Spychala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 04:00G. Poliniewicz46911114113A. Spychala4411941192
LAug 24 · 13:25G. Poliniewicz4291151162A. Spychala49119117113
WAug 18 · 10:55G. Poliniewicz50117138113A. Spychala47911111152
WAug 17 · 13:25G. Poliniewicz43111137113A. Spychala3891111162
WAug 14 · 11:45G. Poliniewicz49118811113A. Spychala4591111592
LAug 13 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz501011101182A. Spychala51128128113
LAug 7 · 10:55G. Poliniewicz391011991A. Spychala3812411113
WJul 28 · 13:50G. Poliniewicz331111113A. Spychala155370
LJul 23 · 10:30G. Poliniewicz4311971152A. Spychala43811112113
WJul 10 · 10:30G. Poliniewicz331111113A. Spychala279990
G. Poliniewicz10
WSep 30 · 09:45M. Rutkowski1.98813111282G. Poliniewicz1.731115310113WSep 30 · 08:30G. Poliniewicz1.8031111143K. Wisniewski1.851168121WSep 30 · 06:50G. Poliniewicz1.9111117113M. Olbrycht1.80971181LSep 30 · 05:35G. Poliniewicz2.20691381L. Jarocki1.57111111113WSep 30 · 04:00G. Poliniewicz2.10911114113A. Spychala1.6611941192LSep 30 · 03:00G. Poliniewicz2.606101141J. Kuzmicz1.4411125113WSep 29 · 08:05G. Poliniewicz1.57111493113K. Wloczko2.27912111182WSep 29 · 06:25K. Wisniewski2.1066110G. Poliniewicz1.651111133LSep 29 · 05:35M. Miastowski1.4281113113G. Poliniewicz2.551191161WSep 29 · 04:50G. Poliniewicz3.20611119113M. Sklensky1.3111941172
A. Spychala10
LSep 30 · 09:00M. Olbrycht1.8011115153A. Spychala1.809811131WSep 30 · 07:40A. Spychala1.8511511113M. Olbrycht1.80711451LSep 30 · 06:25A. Spychala2.0071011101L. Jarocki1.7111128123LSep 30 · 05:15A. Spychala3.00711591J. Kuzmicz1.3511511113LSep 30 · 04:00G. Poliniewicz2.10911114113A. Spychala1.6611941192WSep 30 · 03:20A. Spychala1.7011114113K. Wisniewski2.05581131WSep 29 · 14:15A. Spychala1.67111011113K. Staszczyk2.10812231LSep 29 · 12:35M. Miastowski1.7421411113A. Spychala1.991112391WSep 29 · 11:45J. Kuzmicz1.4099111172A. Spychala2.75111189113WSep 29 · 10:55A. Spychala1.69812161113K. Kolodziej2.061110141162
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