TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Jakub Skorupa 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9117111012––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:19 and never touched: 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
60 points played in total.
Set by set
9117111012––––
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 7–8 Jakub Skorupa Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Skorupa beat Kwiatkowski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:19What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Skorupa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1367 vs Skorupa 1341
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Skorupa 60%
Skorupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Skorupa 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -1 · Skorupa -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Skorupa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.85 / Skorupa 1.85
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Skorupa)+4.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13220285
Kwiatkowski1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Skorupa1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski5wins
AwaySkorupa5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski66.7%4 of 6
AwaySkorupa75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski6Skorupa4n = 10Kwiatkowski took 6 of 10
S2Kwiatkowski5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S3Kwiatkowski4Skorupa6n = 10Skorupa took 6 of 10
S4Kwiatkowski1Skorupa7n = 8Skorupa took 7 of 8
S5Kwiatkowski4Skorupa1n = 5Kwiatkowski took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiSkorupaK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.642.9−1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 329 vs 336 / 70444.1%47.7%145 / 329 vs 336 / 704Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkorupaKwiatkowski 1.85/Skorupa 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Skorupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 23:45K. Kwiatkowski361114113J. Skorupa2541290
LSep 24 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski37811991J. Skorupa3811511113
LSep 17 · 00:35K. Kwiatkowski354121181J. Skorupa4111145113
WAug 22 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski521111109113J. Skorupa4999121182
WAug 22 · 15:25K. Kwiatkowski50811911113J. Skorupa4111511592
LAug 19 · 02:20K. Kwiatkowski48121211492J. Skorupa531014711113
WAug 18 · 18:20K. Kwiatkowski54111388143J. Skorupa527111111122
LJul 25 · 23:10K. Kwiatkowski27114751J. Skorupa4181111113
WJul 25 · 17:10K. Kwiatkowski531251110153J. Skorupa541011812132
LJul 24 · 01:25K. Kwiatkowski2451180J. Skorupa351113113
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 30 · 03:05A. Fomin1.7011611133K. Kwiatkowski1.957117111WSep 30 · 02:20J. Michalik1.95101370K. Kwiatkowski1.751215113WSep 30 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski1.621113612113G. Mucha2.15711111482LSep 30 · 00:20K. Kwiatkowski1.70111153112M. Brunner2.00871111133LSep 29 · 22:40K. Kwiatkowski1.755611101J. Skorupa1.9511119123WSep 29 · 21:05A. Fomin1.6012980K. Kwiatkowski2.101411113LSep 29 · 20:20M. Brunner1.751311123K. Kwiatkowski1.97114100LSep 29 · 19:30K. Kwiatkowski1.95111171272G. Mucha1.75971114113LSep 29 · 18:20K. Kwiatkowski1.707101191P. Gesiarz2.0011128113WSep 29 · 01:50A. Barton4.003850K. Kwiatkowski1.221111113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 30 · 03:55G. Mucha1.6091111113J. Skorupa2.20118691LSep 30 · 01:55A. Fomin2.011051111123J. Skorupa1.72121196102WSep 30 · 01:10M. Brunner2.6071161172J. Skorupa1.44116119113WSep 29 · 23:30J. Michalik1.80914991J. Skorupa1.85111211113WSep 29 · 22:40K. Kwiatkowski1.755611101J. Skorupa1.9511119123WSep 29 · 21:55G. Mucha1.836712121J. Skorupa1.87111110143LSep 29 · 19:55A. Fomin1.3611129133J. Skorupa2.9031011111LSep 29 · 19:10P. Gesiarz2.2961111113J. Skorupa1.56117681LSep 29 · 17:30M. Brunner1.8061311113J. Skorupa1.911111581WSep 25 · 02:10J. Skorupa1.8011117113J. Michalik1.91871151
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