TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Spartak Abalmaz vs Oleksandr Melashenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119113117––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:02 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSpartak Abalmaz above · Oleksandr Melashenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 62.9%
52 points played in total.
H2H Spartak Abalmaz 23–15 Oleksandr Melashenko Oleksandr Melashenko has won 15 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:0262.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Abalmaz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-15 in 38
Abalmaz
Correct
gap of 8 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Abalmaz 1576 vs Melashenko 1539
Abalmaz
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Abalmaz 40% vs Melashenko 0%
Abalmaz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Abalmaz 70% vs Melashenko 30%
Abalmaz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Abalmaz +1 · Melashenko -5
Melashenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Abalmaz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAbalmaz 1.50 / Melashenko 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Abalmaz)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219104
Abalmaz1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 157 of 273
Up 2–0, closes it96% 75 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it74% 115 of 155
Melashenko2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 105 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back19% 31 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAbalmaz6wins
AwayMelashenko4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderAbalmaz leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAbalmaz62.5%5 of 8
AwayMelashenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Abalmaz8Melashenko2n = 10Abalmaz took 8 of 10
S2Abalmaz5Melashenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Abalmaz5Melashenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Abalmaz4Melashenko4n = 8split evenly
S5Abalmaz2Melashenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAbalmazMelashenkoA − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.339.2+4.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAbalmazMelashenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime422 / 835 vs 429 / 85750.5%50.1%422 / 835 vs 429 / 857Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazAbalmaz 1.50/Melashenko 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Abalmaz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 00:55S. Abalmaz34911681O. Melashenko3811511113
WAug 7 · 00:55S. Abalmaz521111514113O. Melashenko4776111672
LJul 27 · 01:25S. Abalmaz51119111192O. Melashenko51911137113
WJul 13 · 22:25S. Abalmaz4111118113O. Melashenko34781181
WJul 8 · 13:55S. Abalmaz528111111113O. Melashenko4011132592
LJul 7 · 23:55S. Abalmaz35118971O. Melashenko4181111113
WJun 24 · 14:55S. Abalmaz331111113O. Melashenko225890
WJun 22 · 21:55S. Abalmaz4111811113O. Melashenko27711451
WJun 7 · 13:25S. Abalmaz401115143O. Melashenko34913120
LJun 3 · 01:55S. Abalmaz54149115152O. Melashenko581211711173
S. Abalmaz10
WSep 30 · 22:05O. Naida2.63135961S. Abalmaz1.44111111113LSep 29 · 03:25S. Abalmaz1.611031271V. Khamurda2.20121110113LSep 29 · 01:55S. Abalmaz1.67118561R. Gnoevoy2.1051111113LSep 29 · 00:25S. Abalmaz1.4446111172O. Naida2.63111156113WSep 28 · 22:55S. Abalmaz1.8311911113S. Skachenko1.83211361WSep 28 · 21:25S. Abalmaz2.201411113V. Panasenko1.6112850WSep 28 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.83771111113D. Derevynskyi1.8311115862WSep 28 · 02:25V. Khamurda2.208680S. Abalmaz1.611111113WSep 28 · 00:25R. Gnoevoy2.10881291S. Abalmaz1.67111110113WSep 27 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.8371112123S. Skachenko1.8311710101
O. Melashenko10
LSep 30 · 21:05D. Derevynskyi1.57111110113O. Melashenko2.25691261LSep 27 · 04:05O. Melashenko3.75101190Y. Krol1.251213113LSep 27 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.911311117123O. Melashenko1.80151911102LSep 27 · 00:05V. Lobas1.36118811113O. Melashenko3.0041111382LSep 26 · 23:05O. Melashenko1.53121165142M. Marchuk2.381061111163WSep 26 · 22:05V. Kobets2.20111183102O. Melashenko1.61981111123LSep 26 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.201021151D. Derevynskyi1.6112117113LSep 26 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2512119113O. Melashenko3.751071191WSep 26 · 00:35O. Melashenko1.911211113O. Gomilko1.8010480WSep 25 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.7311711141O. Melashenko2.0013117163
Upcoming Matches
S. Abalmaz
Oct 1 · 00:05S. Abalmaz1.83D. Derevynskyi1.83—Oct 1 · 02:05S. Abalmaz1.50T. Ponomarenko2.50—Oct 1 · 04:05S. Abalmaz1.67R. Gnoevoy2.10—Oct 1 · 21:55S. Abalmaz1.61V. Khamurda2.20—Oct 1 · 22:55S. Abalmaz1.83V. Panasenko1.83—Oct 2 · 00:55S. Abalmaz1.50O. Melashenko2.50—Oct 2 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.67R. Gnoevoy2.10—Oct 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.44O. Naida2.63—
O. Melashenko
Oct 1 · 01:05O. Melashenko2.38T. Ponomarenko1.53—Oct 1 · 02:35O. Melashenko3.00R. Gnoevoy1.36—Oct 1 · 03:35O. Melashenko1.80O. Naida1.91—Oct 1 · 22:25O. Melashenko1.80O. Naida1.91—Oct 1 · 23:55O. Melashenko2.00V. Khamurda1.73—Oct 2 · 00:55O. Melashenko2.50S. Abalmaz1.50—Oct 2 · 01:55O. Melashenko—V. Panasenko——Oct 2 · 03:55O. Melashenko3.00R. Gnoevoy1.36—
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