TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denis Aldayev vs Roman Boklah 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411118119116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:55 and never touched: 84.6% is still 84.6%
Graded at full timeRoman Boklah to win
84.6%
84.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenis Aldayev above · Roman Boklah below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Roman Boklah at 84.6%
71 points played in total.
H2H Denis Aldayev 4–31 Roman Boklah Denis Aldayev has won 4 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:5584.6%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
clears by 1.3pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Boklah
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-31 in 35
Boklah
Wrong
gap of 27 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aldayev 928 vs Boklah 1126
Boklah
Wrong
both rated, 198 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aldayev 40% vs Boklah 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aldayev 20% vs Boklah 40%
Boklah
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aldayev -3 · Boklah +1
Aldayev
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% · Strong (leans Boklah) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boklah form (40%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAldayev 4.333 / Boklah 1.20
Signal prob.15% / 85%
Edge (Boklah)+1.3pp
Setka Cup · #13219024
Aldayev4.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog27% won 18 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back12% 5 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Boklah1.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 63 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it82% 42 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAldayev2wins
AwayBoklah8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBoklah leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAldayevn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBoklah87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aldayev2Boklah8n = 10Boklah took 8 of 10
S2Aldayev2Boklah8n = 10Boklah took 8 of 10
S3Aldayev6Boklah4n = 10Aldayev took 6 of 10
S4Aldayev2Boklah5n = 7Boklah took 5 of 7
S5Aldayev2Boklah3n = 5Boklah took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricAldayevBoklahA − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.441.1−3.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAldayevBoklahBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 248 vs 255 / 61041.5%41.8%103 / 248 vs 255 / 610Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.935.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BoklahAldayev 4.33/Boklah 1.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
84.6%
Boklah · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Aldayev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 16:30D. Aldayev339311101R. Boklah4311119123
LSep 26 · 08:30D. Aldayev31941171R. Boklah3911116113
WSep 23 · 13:00D. Aldayev6011121115113R. Boklah5081471742
LSep 21 · 13:00D. Aldayev47711117112R. Boklah46116511133
WSep 19 · 07:30D. Aldayev49591113113R. Boklah42111131162
LJul 13 · 16:59D. Aldayev2310490R. Boklah341211113
LJul 13 · 16:00D. Aldayev227870R. Boklah331111113
LJul 4 · 11:00D. Aldayev42101161142R. Boklah44125115113
LJun 25 · 13:00D. Aldayev227960R. Boklah331111113
LApr 30 · 16:30D. Aldayev4511811872R. Boklah47711711113
D. Aldayev10
LSep 30 · 14:00D. Aldayev2.1011881192V. Klymenko1.67511118113LSep 28 · 17:05V. Klymenko1.73119211123D. Aldayev2.00711117102LSep 28 · 16:30D. Aldayev4.339311101R. Boklah1.2011119123LSep 28 · 15:30D. Aldayev4.00119671A. Fastov1.2271111113WSep 28 · 14:00D. Aldayev2.25111115113V. Klymenko1.57911781WSep 28 · 13:00D. Aldayev3.401111113O. Kolos1.306880LSep 26 · 08:30D. Aldayev4.00941171R. Boklah1.2211116113LSep 26 · 07:30O. Kolos1.331112123D. Aldayev3.25510100LSep 26 · 06:30A. Fastov1.20115117123D. Aldayev4.33811711102LSep 26 · 05:00V. Klymenko1.6711116113D. Aldayev2.10731191
R. Boklah10
WSep 30 · 14:30V. Ivnytskyi3.2561181162R. Boklah1.33115119113WSep 30 · 12:00O. Kolos2.631181341R. Boklah1.4471115113LSep 28 · 17:34A. Fastov1.835111012113R. Boklah1.83116121092WSep 28 · 16:30D. Aldayev4.339311101R. Boklah1.2011119123LSep 28 · 15:00R. Boklah1.5091111131V. Klymenko2.5011513153LSep 28 · 13:30R. Boklah1.67411681A. Fastov2.1011911113WSep 28 · 12:00R. Boklah1.441011112113O. Kolos2.6312961142LSep 27 · 17:03R. Boklah3.755860V. Ziakun1.251111113LSep 27 · 16:00S. Priadko1.6111141214133R. Boklah2.2013121412112WSep 26 · 08:30D. Aldayev4.00941171R. Boklah1.2211116113
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