TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Trela vs Marcin Kowalczyk 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311511118117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:16 and never touched — 64.3% is still 64.3%
Graded at full timeMateusz Trela to win
64.3%
64.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
1311511118117––
H2H Mateusz Trela 38–17 Marcin Kowalczyk Marcin Kowalczyk has won 17 of their 55 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Trela beat Kowalczyk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Trela
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-17 in 55
Trela
Correct
gap of 21 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trela 1271 vs Kowalczyk 1271
Kowalczyk
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trela 60% vs Kowalczyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trela 50% vs Kowalczyk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trela +3 · Kowalczyk +2
Trela
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Trela) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrela 1.70 / Kowalczyk 2.00
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Trela)+10.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13214029
Trela1.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 135 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it93% 53 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it74% 89 of 121
Kowalczyk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 143 of 325
Down 0–1, comes back23% 37 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTrela7wins
AwayKowalczyk3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTrela leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrela100%4 of 4
AwayKowalczyk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trela4Kowalczyk5n = 9Kowalczyk took 5 of 9
S2Trela5Kowalczyk4n = 9Trela took 5 of 9
S3Trela7Kowalczyk2n = 9Trela took 7 of 9
S4Trela4Kowalczyk1n = 5Trela took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTrelaKowalczykT − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match37.335.2+2.1per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrelaKowalczykBasisWin rate · lifetime805 / 1642 vs 736 / 149549%49.2%805 / 1642 vs 736 / 1495Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrelaTrela 1.70/Kowalczyk 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.3%
Trela · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Trela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 28 · 20:30M. Trela3812114113M. Kowalczyk381081191
LSep 17 · 17:20M. Trela4568111192M. Kowalczyk43111128113
LSep 3 · 16:15M. Trela3631011121M. Kowalczyk4111124143
WAug 24 · 23:20M. Trela331111113M. Kowalczyk246990
WAug 24 · 20:30M. Trela45391111113M. Kowalczyk4311115882
WAug 17 · 22:35M. Trela331111113M. Kowalczyk259790
LAug 12 · 21:05M. Trela3487190M. Kowalczyk431111213
WAug 12 · 19:20M. Trela331111113M. Kowalczyk236980
WJul 30 · 16:15M. Trela3961111113M. Kowalczyk37118991
M. Trela10
WSep 28 · 21:55M. Trela1.9392011113B. Mrugala1.781118681WSep 28 · 21:30M. Trela1.83811511113M. Skorski1.8311811682WSep 28 · 20:30M. Trela1.4012114113M. Kowalczyk2.651081191LSep 28 · 18:55M. Trela1.429950P. Strus2.551111113LSep 28 · 17:45M. Trela1.83510100B. Mrugala1.871112123WSep 28 · 16:15M. Trela1.7711116113M. Skorski1.95871181LSep 28 · 15:00M. Trela1.721181116142W. Iwasyszyn2.011311514163LSep 28 · 07:40M. Trela2.85811991A. Sobel1.3511811113WSep 28 · 06:30M. Trela1.901311113R. Stapor1.8111970LSep 28 · 05:15M. Trela2.1111118862M. Kukawka1.66971111113
M. Kowalczyk10
WSep 28 · 22:35B. Mrugala1.80581191M. Kowalczyk1.9111117113WSep 28 · 21:05W. Iwasyszyn1.62111181052M. Kowalczyk2.15661112113LSep 28 · 20:30M. Trela1.4012114113M. Kowalczyk2.651081191LSep 28 · 19:20M. Kowalczyk2.50451191W. Iwasyszyn1.4711112113WSep 28 · 18:10P. Strus2.051165101M. Kowalczyk1.7081111123WSep 28 · 16:55B. Mrugala1.83371181M. Kowalczyk1.8311117113LSep 28 · 15:25M. Skorski1.58111198113M. Kowalczyk2.2558111172WSep 24 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.80118118113M. Skorski1.9071191192LSep 24 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.9510440P. Krukar1.751211113LSep 24 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk1.801112751J. Glanowski1.9251411113
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