TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Bruno Mrowetz vs Jan Krupnik 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12103117111181113
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBruno Mrowetz above · Jan Krupnik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 97 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Bruno Mrowetz 19–24 Jan Krupnik Bruno Mrowetz has won 19 of their 43 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Mrowetz beat Krupnik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:11What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mrowetz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-24 in 43
Krupnik
Correct
gap of 5 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrowetz 1663 vs Krupnik 1626
Mrowetz
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrowetz 40% vs Krupnik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrowetz 40% vs Krupnik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrowetz -1 · Krupnik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krupnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrowetz form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrowetz 1.73 / Krupnik 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krupnik)+7.7pp
TT Cup · #13212538
Mrowetz1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 75 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it78% 55 of 71
Krupnik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 100 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back29% 25 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrowetz6wins
AwayKrupnik4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMrowetz leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrowetz83.3%5 of 6
AwayKrupnik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrowetz6Krupnik4n = 10Mrowetz took 6 of 10
S2Mrowetz4Krupnik6n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S3Mrowetz7Krupnik3n = 10Mrowetz took 7 of 10
S4Mrowetz5Krupnik2n = 7Mrowetz took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrowetzKrupnikM − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.832.3+4.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrowetzKrupnikBasisWin rate · lifetime259 / 514 vs 479 / 92650.4%51.7%259 / 514 vs 479 / 926Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikMrowetz 1.73/Krupnik 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 14:15B. Mrowetz3911611113J. Krupnik31311981
WSep 23 · 13:08B. Mrowetz351113113J. Krupnik2471160
LSep 23 · 12:15B. Mrowetz185850J. Krupnik331111113
WSep 21 · 17:08B. Mrowetz4111118113J. Krupnik27351181
LSep 21 · 14:15B. Mrowetz5013991182J. Krupnik501111116113
WSep 3 · 11:40B. Mrowetz4291111113J. Krupnik27116641
LSep 1 · 06:45B. Mrowetz37981191J. Krupnik4011117113
WAug 12 · 11:40B. Mrowetz3711411113J. Krupnik29811371
WJul 27 · 12:48B. Mrowetz331111113J. Krupnik199370
LJul 27 · 09:40B. Mrowetz36691291J. Krupnik43111110113
B. Mrowetz10
LSep 28 · 15:45F. Chaloupka1.837181111133B. Mrowetz1.83112058112WSep 28 · 15:15L. Kantor2.5012750B. Mrowetz1.501411113WSep 28 · 14:15B. Mrowetz1.7311611113J. Krupnik2.00311981LSep 28 · 12:39L. Dzida1.50145115113B. Mrowetz2.50121181132LSep 28 · 11:40B. Mrowetz1.531312651L. Dzida2.38111411113LSep 28 · 10:40B. Mrowetz1.5311119131R. Benes2.3871311153LSep 28 · 09:40B. Mrowetz1.4410990A. Kanak2.631211113WSep 23 · 17:15B. Mrowetz1.611112133K. Kleprlik2.20710110LSep 23 · 15:45D. Velky Jr2.25571316143B. Mrowetz1.5711111114122WSep 23 · 15:15A. Kanak2.751371211142B. Mrowetz1.401111148163
J. Krupnik10
WSep 28 · 16:15J. Krupnik1.501111113L. Kantor2.508960WSep 28 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.738111081J. Krupnik2.0011612113LSep 28 · 14:15B. Mrowetz1.7311611113J. Krupnik2.00311981LSep 27 · 12:38J. Krupnik1.6757110A. Veliiev2.101111133LSep 27 · 11:40F. Chaloupka1.7311117113J. Krupnik2.00891171LSep 27 · 11:10J. Travnicek1.9111138113J. Krupnik1.806111181WSep 27 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.61751111113A. Veliiev2.2011114472LSep 25 · 09:09L. Slavik2.10111110123J. Krupnik1.676912101LSep 25 · 07:40L. Slavik2.25118128133J. Krupnik1.577111011112WSep 25 · 07:10E. Precek2.207116101J. Krupnik1.6111711123
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