TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Adam Kanak vs Radek Benes 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111214611––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:07 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Kanak above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 60 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Radek Benes at 54.1%
60 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kanak 2–3 Radek Benes Adam Kanak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
They have already met 3 times today · last one 3h before this match
Benes beat Kanak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:07What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanak 1563 vs Benes 1580
Benes
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanak 60% vs Benes 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanak 40% vs Benes 70%
Benes
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanak +2 · Benes -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanak 2.00 / Benes 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Benes)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13212518
Kanak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog63% won 30 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back42% 10 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Benes1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 174 of 307
Up 2–0, closes it94% 74 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it77% 119 of 155
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKanak2wins
AwayBenes3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderBenes leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanak50%2 of 4
AwayBenesn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanak4Benes1n = 5Kanak took 4 of 5
S2Kanak3Benes2n = 5Kanak took 3 of 5
S3Kanak1Benes4n = 5Benes took 4 of 5
S4Kanak2Benes2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKanakBenesK − BBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match34.638.4−3.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKanakBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 149 vs 513 / 98854.4%51.9%81 / 149 vs 513 / 988Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesKanak 2.00/Benes 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 28 · 14:10A. Kanak3811171362R. Benes517111111113
LSep 28 · 13:10A. Kanak31117581R. Benes4071111113
WSep 28 · 12:10A. Kanak3811115113R. Benes34791171
LAug 29 · 20:38A. Kanak335111161R. Benes4411913113
WAug 29 · 20:15A. Kanak331111113R. Benes237790
A. Kanak10
WSep 28 · 16:10A. Kanak1.671112173D. Pawlik2.10810150WSep 28 · 14:40K. Kleprlik1.44811381A. Kanak2.6311111113LSep 28 · 14:10R. Benes1.737111111113A. Kanak2.0011171362LSep 28 · 13:10A. Kanak1.80117581R. Benes1.9171111113WSep 28 · 12:10R. Benes1.91791171A. Kanak1.8011115113LSep 28 · 11:10A. Kanak2.0089111142L. Dzida1.73111198113WSep 28 · 09:40B. Mrowetz1.4410990A. Kanak2.631211113LSep 27 · 08:39J. Skalicky1.671111153A. Kanak2.1069130LSep 27 · 08:10A. Veliiev2.001411113A. Kanak1.7312480LSep 27 · 07:10A. Kanak1.73811115132D. Stusek2.00116711153
R. Benes10
LSep 28 · 15:40K. Kleprlik1.91311115113R. Benes1.8011781172WSep 28 · 15:10D. Pawlik1.911171071R. Benes1.8071112113WSep 28 · 14:10R. Benes1.737111111113A. Kanak2.0011171362WSep 28 · 13:10A. Kanak1.80117581R. Benes1.9171111113LSep 28 · 12:10R. Benes1.91791171A. Kanak1.8011115113WSep 28 · 10:40B. Mrowetz1.5311119131R. Benes2.3871311153WSep 28 · 10:10L. Dzida2.00118741R. Benes1.7361111113WSep 23 · 08:43R. Benes1.50911911113R. Solle2.5011911782LSep 23 · 07:40J. Krupnik1.8391111113R. Benes1.83118771WSep 23 · 07:10E. Precek2.2041111952R. Benes1.61114811113
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