TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Natkaniec vs Miroslaw Warzecha 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111161181210––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:06 and never touched — 78.3% is still 78.3%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Warzecha to win
78.3%
78.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
9111161181210––
H2H Michal Natkaniec 0–21 Miroslaw Warzecha Michal Natkaniec has won 0 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Warzecha beat Natkaniec 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (73%)
Warzecha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-21 in 21
Warzecha
Wrong
gap of 21 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Natkaniec 1338 vs Warzecha 1559
Warzecha
Wrong
both rated, 221 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Natkaniec 40% vs Warzecha 80%
Warzecha
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Natkaniec 40% vs Warzecha 80%
Warzecha
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Natkaniec +1 · Warzecha -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Warzecha) · live re-read · sealed at 78% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Natkaniec form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNatkaniec 3.40 / Warzecha 1.25
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Warzecha)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13198176
Natkaniec3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 35 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 57
Warzecha1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite73% won 359 of 493
Up 2–0, closes it97% 205 of 212
Up 1–0, closes it89% 268 of 301
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNatkaniec0wins
AwayWarzecha10wins
1 of 10 to a deciderWarzecha leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNatkaniec0%0 of 3
AwayWarzecha100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Natkaniec3Warzecha7n = 10Warzecha took 7 of 10
S2Natkaniec2Warzecha8n = 10Warzecha took 8 of 10
S3Natkaniec1Warzecha9n = 10Warzecha took 9 of 10
S4Natkaniec1Warzecha5n = 6Warzecha took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNatkaniecWarzechaN − WBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match26.539.1−12.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNatkaniecWarzechaBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 408 vs 852 / 120934.1%70.5%139 / 408 vs 852 / 1209Avg sets wonper match1.52.4per matchAvg pointsper match33.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WarzechaNatkaniec 3.40/Warzecha 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Warzecha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Natkaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 20:20M. Natkaniec227690M. Warzecha331111113
LJun 6 · 22:00M. Natkaniec311161221M. Warzecha4481114113
LJun 6 · 18:00M. Natkaniec361186111M. Warzecha4051111133
LMay 23 · 02:20M. Natkaniec23113631M. Warzecha3961111113
LMay 22 · 20:20M. Natkaniec249870M. Warzecha331111113
LApr 9 · 00:20M. Natkaniec186840M. Warzecha331111113
LApr 8 · 23:05M. Natkaniec23551121M. Warzecha4111118113
LFeb 24 · 01:45M. Natkaniec198380M. Warzecha331111113
LFeb 23 · 18:10M. Natkaniec3861171132M. Warzecha50118119113
LJan 26 · 23:00M. Natkaniec311211531M. Warzecha4514911113
M. Natkaniec10
WSep 26 · 00:45M. Wozniczka1.757680M. Natkaniec1.901111113LSep 26 · 00:00M. Krutak1.905101111113M. Natkaniec1.7511125772WSep 25 · 23:10M. Natkaniec2.05117811133M. Wolny1.65511116112LSep 25 · 22:00M. Natkaniec4.206830C. Pawlik1.201111113LSep 25 · 20:20M. Natkaniec3.807690M. Warzecha1.201111113WSep 25 · 18:45M. Wozniczka1.5551180M. Natkaniec2.301113113LSep 25 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.1811116113M. Natkaniec4.50621131WSep 25 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.05111210113M. Wolny1.669101271LSep 25 · 16:00M. Natkaniec2.001171391M. Krutak1.7071115113LSep 19 · 02:20M. Natkaniec3.6591111111J. Oracz1.1711133133
M. Warzecha10
LSep 26 · 01:35M. Wolny2.2881111113M. Warzecha1.56116581WSep 25 · 23:35M. Wozniczka1.6688111182M. Warzecha2.11111195113WSep 25 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.8011711992M. Warzecha1.85611711113WSep 25 · 21:10M. Krutak2.05511471M. Warzecha1.6811811113WSep 25 · 20:20M. Natkaniec3.807690M. Warzecha1.201111113WSep 25 · 19:35M. Wolny2.507970M. Warzecha1.451111113WSep 25 · 17:35M. Wozniczka2.2081161192M. Warzecha1.57116119113WSep 25 · 16:50M. Krutak2.011011991M. Warzecha1.7212811113LSep 25 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.831051111113M. Warzecha1.8712117992WSep 24 · 04:20W. Stechly9.2551171252M. Warzecha1.051171110113
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