TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ruslan Ivanov vs Serhii Chuhai 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117911116115––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:15 and never touched — 78.6% is still 78.6%
Graded at full timeRuslan Ivanov to win
78.6%
78.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Ivanov above · Serhii Chuhai below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 71 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Ruslan Ivanov at 78.6%
71 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Ivanov 15–2 Serhii Chuhai Serhii Chuhai has won 2 of their 17 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Ivanov beat Chuhai 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:15What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Ivanov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-2 in 17
Ivanov
Correct
gap of 13 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivanov 1912 vs Chuhai 1809
Ivanov
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivanov 60% vs Chuhai 40%
Ivanov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivanov 60% vs Chuhai 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivanov +1 · Chuhai +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Ivanov) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chuhai form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvanov 1.25 / Chuhai 3.75
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Ivanov)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13191177
Ivanov1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite72% won 52 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Chuhai3.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 74 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back19% 27 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIvanov8wins
AwayChuhai2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderIvanov leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvanov87.5%7 of 8
AwayChuhain = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivanov8Chuhai2n = 10Ivanov took 8 of 10
S2Ivanov7Chuhai3n = 10Ivanov took 7 of 10
S3Ivanov7Chuhai3n = 10Ivanov took 7 of 10
S4Ivanov4Chuhai3n = 7Ivanov took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricIvanovChuhaiI − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.933.0+5.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvanovChuhaiBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 113 vs 485 / 95167.3%51%76 / 113 vs 485 / 951Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvanovIvanov 1.25/Chuhai 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.3%
Ivanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ivanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 12:00R. Ivanov331111113S. Chuhai236890
LSep 24 · 17:38R. Ivanov521110111192S. Chuhai46412613113
WSep 24 · 12:00R. Ivanov3911611113S. Chuhai30711571
WSep 11 · 17:29R. Ivanov3811115113S. Chuhai27541171
WSep 11 · 12:00R. Ivanov48111547113S. Chuhai48713111162
WAug 21 · 12:00R. Ivanov331111113S. Chuhai185490
LAug 20 · 16:00R. Ivanov34812681S. Chuhai43111011113
WAug 13 · 17:34R. Ivanov3911511123S. Chuhai367118101
WAug 13 · 15:00R. Ivanov4071111113S. Chuhai33117691
WAug 7 · 06:00R. Ivanov331111113S. Chuhai269890
R. Ivanov10
WSep 25 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.801111113M. Baday1.914960LSep 25 · 15:30R. Ivanov1.91811651I. Fedoryshyn1.8011911113WSep 25 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.804820R. Ivanov1.911111113LSep 25 · 13:30M. Baday1.917111011123R. Ivanov1.80119126102WSep 25 · 12:00S. Chuhai3.406890R. Ivanov1.301111113LSep 24 · 17:38S. Chuhai4.00412613113R. Ivanov1.221110111192WSep 24 · 16:30M. Baday1.91612611102R. Ivanov1.801110115123WSep 24 · 15:00R. Ivanov1.221311119113A. Lushchyk4.00111371162LSep 24 · 13:30R. Ivanov2.009131371I. Fedoryshyn1.73111115113WSep 24 · 12:00R. Ivanov1.2811611113S. Chuhai3.50711571
S. Chuhai10
WSep 25 · 16:30I. Fedoryshyn1.57111050S. Chuhai2.251312113WSep 25 · 15:00M. Baday1.33119891S. Chuhai3.2581111113LSep 25 · 14:00S. Chuhai3.2511411572M. Baday1.33811711113LSep 25 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.638880I. Fedoryshyn1.441111113LSep 25 · 12:00S. Chuhai3.406890R. Ivanov1.301111113WSep 24 · 17:38S. Chuhai4.00412613113R. Ivanov1.221110111192WSep 24 · 16:00A. Lushchyk1.7391110111S. Chuhai2.0011912133WSep 24 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.5364121142S. Chuhai2.381111109113WSep 24 · 13:00M. Baday1.44661171S. Chuhai2.6311119113LSep 24 · 12:00R. Ivanov1.2811611113S. Chuhai3.50711571
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