TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Rutkowski vs Grzegorz Poliniewicz 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11133111513411––
Grzegorz Poliniewicz
Away
1.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Poliniewicz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
11133111513411––
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 5–4 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Grzegorz Poliniewicz has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (52%)
Poliniewicz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1666 vs Poliniewicz 1763
Poliniewicz
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 40% vs Poliniewicz 80%
Poliniewicz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 40% vs Poliniewicz 80%
Poliniewicz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski -1 · Poliniewicz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Poliniewicz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.90 / Poliniewicz 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Poliniewicz)+1.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13188934
Rutkowski1.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 122 of 300
Down 0–1, comes back22% 39 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 89
Poliniewicz1.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 319 of 449
Up 2–0, closes it95% 143 of 150
Up 1–0, closes it84% 234 of 279
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeRutkowski5wins
AwayPoliniewicz4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderRutkowski leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski100%4 of 4
AwayPoliniewicz80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski4Poliniewicz5n = 9Poliniewicz took 5 of 9
S2Rutkowski4Poliniewicz5n = 9Poliniewicz took 5 of 9
S3Rutkowski6Poliniewicz3n = 9Rutkowski took 6 of 9
S4Rutkowski6Poliniewicz1n = 7Rutkowski took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricRutkowskiPoliniewiczR − PBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match38.839.3−0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime815 / 1450 vs 1224 / 209156.2%58.5%815 / 1450 vs 1224 / 2091Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PoliniewiczRutkowski 1.90/Poliniewicz 1.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Poliniewicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Poliniewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 24 · 04:50M. Rutkowski4513317123G. Poliniewicz47111115101
WSep 23 · 09:45M. Rutkowski3711114113G. Poliniewicz35871191
LSep 21 · 12:35M. Rutkowski49119111172G. Poliniewicz52131198113
LSep 17 · 14:35M. Rutkowski37891191G. Poliniewicz3811115113
WSep 16 · 12:35M. Rutkowski4571111163G. Poliniewicz391186141
WSep 14 · 14:15M. Rutkowski4313611133G. Poliniewicz3811115111
LJan 23 · 12:05M. Rutkowski4051161172G. Poliniewicz47118116113
LJan 16 · 15:25M. Rutkowski206680G. Poliniewicz331111113
WJan 1 · 10:05M. Rutkowski331111113G. Poliniewicz257990
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 24 · 10:30M. Rutkowski1.7073120J. Kwapis2.001111143WSep 24 · 09:45K. Kapik2.1011101110122M. Rutkowski1.65712312143LSep 24 · 08:30A. Daniel1.6511911113M. Rutkowski2.05411621LSep 24 · 07:15M. Rutkowski2.257660K. Wloczko1.551111113WSep 24 · 06:00M. Malachowski1.8761070M. Rutkowski1.831112113WSep 24 · 04:50G. Poliniewicz1.95111115101M. Rutkowski1.7713317123WSep 24 · 03:20J. Kwapis2.1071260M. Rutkowski1.631114113LSep 23 · 14:15M. Rutkowski2.005850D. Prokopcov1.731111113LSep 23 · 12:35K. Wisniewski2.1012811113M. Rutkowski1.671011951LSep 23 · 11:45J. Kwapis1.81117611113M. Rutkowski1.9061111972
G. Poliniewicz10
WSep 24 · 10:55K. Kapik2.00812100G. Poliniewicz1.701114123WSep 24 · 09:20J. Zochniak3.0594120G. Poliniewicz1.301111143LSep 24 · 08:05G. Poliniewicz2.5041181152K. Wloczko1.45117117113WSep 24 · 06:25J. Kwapis2.856830G. Poliniewicz1.381111113WSep 24 · 05:35A. Daniel2.23451171G. Poliniewicz1.5911113113LSep 24 · 04:50G. Poliniewicz1.95111115101M. Rutkowski1.7713317123WSep 24 · 03:40G. Poliniewicz1.751111113M. Malachowski1.959650WSep 23 · 13:50K. Wisniewski1.9811118592G. Poliniewicz1.75791111113WSep 23 · 13:00J. Kwapis2.159340G. Poliniewicz1.611111113WSep 23 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz2.15119811113A. Daniel1.6091111382
Upcoming Matches
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