TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Skvor vs Jiri Matus 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115119511811411
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:39 and never touched: 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Skvor above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 86 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Ondrej Skvor at 66.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Skvor 3–1 Jiri Matus Jiri Matus has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:3966.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 5.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Skvor
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Skvor
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvor 1455 vs Matus 1457
Matus
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvor 20% vs Matus 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvor 60% vs Matus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvor -3 · Matus +1
Skvor
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Skvor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvor 1.40 / Matus 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Skvor)-5.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251449
Skvor1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 66 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it66% 40 of 61
Matus2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 32 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back38% 12 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back20% 3 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSkvor3wins
AwayMatus1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderSkvor leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvor66.7%2 of 3
AwayMatusn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvor3Matus1n = 4Skvor took 3 of 4
S2Skvor3Matus1n = 4Skvor took 3 of 4
S3Skvor3Matus1n = 4Skvor took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSkvorMatusS − MBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match38.231.0+7.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvorMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 213 vs 245 / 46552.1%52.7%111 / 213 vs 245 / 465Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorSkvor 1.40/Matus 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 6 · 07:45O. Skvor3911115842J. Matus47591111113
WOct 5 · 09:18O. Skvor46491111113J. Matus3911119262
WOct 5 · 07:40O. Skvor351113113J. Matus2151150
WJul 4 · 15:10O. Skvor331111113J. Matus174670
O. Skvor10
LOct 6 · 06:45O. Skvor1.539730P. Jokiel2.381111113LOct 6 · 05:45O. Skvor1.301081111122A. Strelec3.40121179143LOct 5 · 13:10D. Stefek2.201111113O. Skvor1.619670WOct 5 · 11:40J. Sindler2.63111361172O. Skvor1.44515117113LOct 5 · 11:10D. Stefek2.752111111113O. Skvor1.4011981382WOct 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.46111114113L. Krupnik Jr2.50751651WOct 5 · 09:18O. Skvor1.36491111113J. Matus3.0011119262WOct 5 · 07:40J. Matus2.2551150O. Skvor1.571113113WOct 5 · 07:10L. Krupnik Jr2.255880O. Skvor1.571111113WOct 5 · 06:10O. Skvor1.611111113A. Strelec2.206670
J. Matus10
WOct 6 · 07:15A. Strelec1.9176121192J. Matus1.801111106113LOct 6 · 06:15J. Matus1.50111151032P. Jokiel2.50961112113LOct 5 · 09:18O. Skvor1.36491111113J. Matus3.0011119262LOct 5 · 07:40J. Matus2.2551150O. Skvor1.571113113LOct 5 · 06:40J. Matus1.8071612962A. Strelec1.9111141011113WOct 5 · 05:40J. Matus1.611311113L. Krupnik Jr2.2011950WOct 3 · 21:10J. Matus1.44571111113L. Krupnik Jr2.6311113982WOct 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.6713911462J. Matus2.1011111112113WOct 3 · 19:10L. Krupnik Jr2.101411851J. Matus1.67121311113WOct 3 · 18:10J. Matus1.5712711113J. Jnr2.251011391
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.