Maciej Kolek vs Radoslaw Malinowski 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa

Played Oct 12Finished

Maciej Kolek

Home

1.40

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

8111513117117––

Radoslaw Malinowski

Away

2.75

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:35 and never touched: 66.3% is still 66.3%

Graded at full time

Maciej Kolek to win

66.3%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Radoslaw Malinowski below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 15-13

Set 3 · 11-7

Set 4 · 11-7

Point 83 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Maciej Kolek at 66.3%

83 points played in total.

H2H Maciej Kolek 5–5 Radoslaw Malinowski Dead even across their 10 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Kolek

Kolek 1.40/Malinowski 2.75

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

66.3%

Kolek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Kolek won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 15:35

66.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40

short by 5.1pp

71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.40 (66%)

Kolek

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

5-5 in 10

—

Too close

gap of 0, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kolek 1616 vs Malinowski 1421

Kolek

Correct

both rated, 194 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kolek 40% vs Malinowski 60%

Malinowski

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kolek 60% vs Malinowski 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Kolek -1 · Malinowski +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Kolek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Malinowski: form 60%, the price implies 36%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKolek 1.40 / Malinowski 2.75

Signal prob.66% / 34%

Edge (Kolek)-5.1pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeKolek5wins

AwayMalinowski5wins

2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKolek75%3 of 4

AwayMalinowski66.7%4 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kolek4Malinowski6n = 10Malinowski took 6 of 10

S2Kolek8Malinowski2n = 10Kolek took 8 of 10

S3Kolek3Malinowski7n = 10Malinowski took 7 of 10

S4Kolek4Malinowski4n = 8split evenly

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricKolekMalinowskiK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.337.0−0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKolekMalinowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime786 / 1546 vs 229 / 48250.8%47.5%786 / 1546 vs 229 / 482Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.6per match

TT Elite Series · #13282340

Kolek1.40

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite63% won 272 of 432

Up 2–0, closes it94% 94 of 100

Up 1–0, closes it82% 203 of 247

Malinowski2.75

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog35% won 30 of 86

Down 0–1, comes back14% 7 of 50

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 29

Maciej Kolek vs Radoslaw Malinowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Maciej Kolek vs Radoslaw Malinowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.