TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Tomasz Lojtek vs Mariusz Adamus 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesPOC · Poczesna
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119113611118––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:16 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
119113611118––
H2H Tomasz Lojtek 0–3 Mariusz Adamus Tomasz Lojtek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Adamus beat Lojtek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:1654.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lojtek 1265 vs Adamus 1360
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lojtek 40% vs Adamus 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lojtek 30% vs Adamus 50%
Adamus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lojtek +1 · Adamus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Adamus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLojtek 1.85 / Adamus 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Adamus)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13272549
Lojtek1.85
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog25% won 3 of 12
Down 0–1, comes back13% 1 of 8
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Adamus1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 200 of 374
Up 2–0, closes it88% 70 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it70% 134 of 191
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLojtek0wins
AwayAdamus3wins
2 of 3 to a deciderAdamus leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLojtekn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayAdamus100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lojtek0Adamus3n = 3Adamus took 3 of 3
S2Lojtek2Adamus1n = 3Lojtek took 2 of 3
S3Lojtek2Adamus1n = 3Lojtek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricLojtekAdamusL − ABasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match37.046.7−9.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLojtekAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 27 vs 789 / 162040.7%48.7%11 / 27 vs 789 / 1620Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusLojtek 1.85/Adamus 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lojtek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 9 · 18:20T. Lojtek41111111532M. Adamus49135911113
LSep 26 · 05:35T. Lojtek5291811772M. Adamus581116911113
LSep 13 · 06:45T. Lojtek189450M. Adamus331111113
T. Lojtek10
WOct 10 · 00:45T. Lojtek2.1511912113R. Szymik1.638111091LOct 9 · 23:30T. Lojtek2.557116111J. Badura1.4511211133WOct 9 · 22:20R. Szymik1.558740T. Lojtek2.301111113LOct 9 · 21:30R. Wiza1.80137119113T. Lojtek1.85111171172LOct 9 · 20:45T. Lojtek1.3911311732J. Michalski2.80711911113LOct 9 · 19:10T. Lojtek2.35681231J. Badura1.54111110113LOct 9 · 18:20M. Adamus1.80135911113T. Lojtek1.90111111532LOct 3 · 08:20T. Lojtek1.8511311882P. Mecik1.80911411113WOct 3 · 06:45M. Koczyba1.80118761T. Lojtek1.9091111113LOct 3 · 06:00K. Adamus1.42111154123T. Lojtek2.60661111102
M. Adamus10
LOct 10 · 01:30M. Adamus1.6491090J. Michalski2.141112113WOct 10 · 00:20M. Adamus1.9581111113R. Wiza1.75119781LOct 9 · 22:40M. Adamus2.20971113112J. Badura1.601111811133WOct 9 · 21:05R. Szymik1.854860M. Adamus1.801111113LOct 9 · 20:20R. Wiza1.85111111113M. Adamus1.85991371LOct 9 · 19:30M. Adamus1.39711991J. Michalski2.7911411113WOct 9 · 18:20M. Adamus1.80135911113T. Lojtek1.90111111532WOct 7 · 08:20M. Adamus1.531112118133J. Nowak2.38614511112LOct 7 · 06:45R. Idaczyk1.82111154113M. Adamus1.885871182WOct 7 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.159590M. Adamus1.601111113
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