TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Zmijewski vs Artur Kubiak 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411116911611––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:57 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
411116911611––
H2H Artur Zmijewski 4–3 Artur Kubiak Artur Kubiak has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5760.1%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
clears by 1.3pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (55%)
Zmijewski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmijewski 1452 vs Kubiak 1361
Zmijewski
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmijewski 40% vs Kubiak 60%
Kubiak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmijewski 40% vs Kubiak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmijewski +1 · Kubiak +3
Kubiak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Zmijewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmijewski 1.70 / Kubiak 2.05
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Zmijewski)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13243789
Zmijewski1.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 79 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it100% 48 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it87% 60 of 69
Kubiak2.05
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 04)
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 73 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back16% 21 of 133
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeZmijewski4wins
AwayKubiak3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderZmijewski leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmijewski60%3 of 5
AwayKubiakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmijewski5Kubiak2n = 7Zmijewski took 5 of 7
S2Zmijewski3Kubiak4n = 7Kubiak took 4 of 7
S3Zmijewski5Kubiak2n = 7Zmijewski took 5 of 7
S4Zmijewski2Kubiak1n = 3Zmijewski took 2 of 3
S5Zmijewski1Kubiak2n = 3Kubiak took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricZmijewskiKubiakZ − KBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match40.436.0+4.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmijewskiKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 180 vs 483 / 89058.3%54.3%105 / 180 vs 483 / 890Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiZmijewski 1.70/Kubiak 2.05
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kubiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 4 · 23:10A. Zmijewski351111133A. Kubiak2348110
LSep 4 · 17:10A. Zmijewski51119111192A. Kubiak52811139113
WAug 30 · 21:45A. Zmijewski331111113A. Kubiak209380
LAug 30 · 17:45A. Zmijewski258890A. Kubiak331111113
LAug 10 · 21:10A. Zmijewski53159117112A. Kubiak521311411133
WAug 9 · 00:25A. Zmijewski341111123A. Kubiak2394100
WAug 8 · 20:45A. Zmijewski521081211113A. Kubiak49121110792
A. Zmijewski10
LOct 5 · 16:25A. Zmijewski1.501411881J. Cyndera2.4516511113WOct 2 · 04:40A. Zmijewski1.321811113M. Wolny3.2016460LOct 2 · 03:05M. Lewczuk2.2081211113A. Zmijewski1.571110861LOct 2 · 02:20J. Michalik1.6411911113A. Zmijewski2.14611821WOct 2 · 01:30A. Zmijewski1.6651111113A. Staniczek2.10119531LOct 2 · 00:20A. Zmijewski—811101162M. Zielinski—117125113WOct 1 · 22:40A. Zmijewski1.351111113M. Wolny2.957390WOct 1 · 21:05M. Lewczuk2.1043111172A. Zmijewski1.66111156113LOct 1 · 20:20M. Zielinski—451311123A. Zmijewski—1111119102LOct 1 · 19:30A. Zmijewski1.47711971A. Staniczek2.5111411113
A. Kubiak10
WOct 5 · 16:50D. Maszczynski3.2071190A. Kubiak1.271113113WOct 4 · 02:20J. Skorupa2.106470A. Kubiak1.661111113WOct 4 · 01:35A. Szurgot3.101191081A. Kubiak1.3081112113WOct 3 · 23:35J. Oracz1.707911111A. Kubiak2.0411118133LOct 3 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.401111133A. Kubiak2.7565110LOct 3 · 21:10M. Baran2.101015411153A. Kubiak1.651213116132LOct 3 · 20:20J. Skorupa1.90611711123A. Kubiak1.80114119102LOct 3 · 19:35A. Szurgot2.75411139113A. Kubiak1.37114111132LOct 3 · 17:35J. Oracz1.271111113A. Kubiak3.356890LOct 3 · 16:50M. Baran2.00111185113A. Kubiak1.7189111192
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