TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Cezary Pawlik vs Artur Kubiak 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811115911711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:57 and never touched: 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeCezary Pawlik to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
811115911711––
H2H Cezary Pawlik 30–32 Artur Kubiak Cezary Pawlik has won 30 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5769.5%Our read36.9%to break even at 2.71
clears by 32.6pp36.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.71 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (66%)
Kubiak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-32 in 62
Kubiak
Correct
gap of 2 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1529 vs Kubiak 1363
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 166 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 60% vs Kubiak 40%
Pawlik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 70% vs Kubiak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +1 · Kubiak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Pawlik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 2.71 / Kubiak 1.41
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Pawlik)+32.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13236370
Pawlik2.71
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 42 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back12% 6 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Kubiak1.41
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 161 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it96% 75 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it84% 110 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik7wins
AwayKubiak3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik77.8%7 of 9
AwayKubiakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik9Kubiak1n = 10Pawlik took 9 of 10
S2Pawlik8Kubiak2n = 10Pawlik took 8 of 10
S3Pawlik5Kubiak5n = 10split evenly
S4Pawlik4Kubiak3n = 7Pawlik took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikKubiakP − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.131.0+8.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime317 / 539 vs 495 / 91058.8%54.4%317 / 539 vs 495 / 910Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 2.71/Kubiak 1.41
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kubiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 00:25C. Pawlik331111113A. Kubiak175660
WSep 4 · 20:45C. Pawlik331111113A. Kubiak113350
WAug 30 · 00:45C. Pawlik47111113123A. Kubiak388515101
WAug 29 · 18:45C. Pawlik331111113A. Kubiak162770
WAug 16 · 02:00C. Pawlik43111011113A. Kubiak27712441
LAug 15 · 16:25C. Pawlik4111117752A. Kubiak46761111113
WAug 9 · 02:00C. Pawlik3911115123A. Kubiak366911101
LAug 8 · 16:25C. Pawlik341011581A. Kubiak4012611113
LJul 17 · 22:00C. Pawlik4711118982A. Kubiak49791111113
WJul 17 · 18:00C. Pawlik4111811113A. Kubiak30611491
C. Pawlik10
LOct 3 · 16:25C. Pawlik2.4061290J. Oracz1.501114113WOct 3 · 02:00J. Oracz1.551141191C. Pawlik2.2513114113LOct 3 · 01:10M. Wozniczka2.5812118113C. Pawlik1.451031141WOct 3 · 00:25C. Pawlik1.261113113K. Malcher3.6021130WOct 2 · 22:50C. Pawlik2.201312113T. Kocik1.57111070LOct 2 · 22:00M. Zielinski1.85101112123C. Pawlik1.8012810101WOct 2 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.37121112113K. Malcher2.861471051WOct 2 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.501111113M. Wozniczka2.406720WOct 2 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.80121112113M. Zielinski1.851091451WOct 2 · 16:25C. Pawlik2.20114118113J. Oracz1.5791191192
A. Kubiak10
LSep 29 · 02:00J. Cyndera1.881111123A. Kubiak1.8297100WSep 29 · 01:10J. Michalik2.15511591A. Kubiak1.6011911113LSep 29 · 00:25A. Kubiak1.25811681A. Staniczek3.5011911113LSep 28 · 22:50A. Kubiak2.509410J. Zelezik1.461111113WSep 28 · 22:00M. Machelski2.3711671482A. Kubiak1.529111112113WSep 28 · 20:45A. Kubiak1.3591113133A. Staniczek2.8511611111WSep 28 · 19:10A. Kubiak1.4081111113D. Maszczynski2.70115571WSep 28 · 18:00A. Kubiak1.6691111113P. Gesiarz2.05117951WSep 28 · 16:25A. Kubiak1.851112113J. Cyndera1.8051070LSep 28 · 15:10A. Kubiak2.261111381J. Zelezik1.5771311113
Upcoming Matches
C. Pawlik
Nothing scheduled
A. Kubiak
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