TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavlo Ishchyk vs Andrii Peretiatko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111169111012––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:42 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timePavlo Ishchyk to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavlo Ishchyk above · Andrii Peretiatko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 75 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Pavlo Ishchyk at 58.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Pavlo Ishchyk 3–2 Andrii Peretiatko Andrii Peretiatko has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:4258.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Ishchyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ishchyk 1422 vs Peretiatko 1389
Ishchyk
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ishchyk 60% vs Peretiatko 80%
Peretiatko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ishchyk 70% vs Peretiatko 50%
Ishchyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ishchyk -1 · Peretiatko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Ishchyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Peretiatko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIshchyk 1.615 / Peretiatko 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Ishchyk)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218984
Ishchyk1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 17 of 30
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Peretiatko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 87 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back23% 26 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeIshchyk3wins
AwayPeretiatko2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderIshchyk leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIshchyk66.7%2 of 3
AwayPeretiatkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ishchyk3Peretiatko2n = 5Ishchyk took 3 of 5
S2Ishchyk3Peretiatko2n = 5Ishchyk took 3 of 5
S3Ishchyk4Peretiatko1n = 5Ishchyk took 4 of 5
S4Ishchyk2Peretiatko1n = 3Ishchyk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricIshchykPeretiatkoI − PBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match37.433.0+4.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIshchykPeretiatkoBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 177 vs 357 / 78036.7%45.8%65 / 177 vs 357 / 780Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
IshchykIshchyk 1.61/Peretiatko 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Ishchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Peretiatko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 29 · 16:55P. Ishchyk4141111153A. Peretiatko321144131
LSep 21 · 15:55P. Ishchyk3966111152A. Peretiatko48111169113
WSep 16 · 17:55P. Ishchyk391117113A. Peretiatko2951590
LSep 14 · 17:55P. Ishchyk35119961A. Peretiatko3851111113
WJun 18 · 19:25P. Ishchyk331111113A. Peretiatko188730
P. Ishchyk10
LSep 30 · 17:55D. Us1.67813911113P. Ishchyk2.10111111982WSep 30 · 16:55P. Ishchyk1.3611911113M. Skliar3.00911551LSep 30 · 15:55D. Rehotun2.0011116113P. Ishchyk1.73651151WSep 30 · 14:25P. Ishchyk1.8011711113M. Fomin1.91711681WSep 29 · 19:55P. Ishchyk2.10129811113D. Us1.67101111752WSep 29 · 17:55D. Rehotun1.8311871192P. Ishchyk1.83411118113WSep 29 · 16:55P. Ishchyk1.7341111153A. Peretiatko2.001144131LSep 29 · 15:55V. Kobets1.8381411113P. Ishchyk1.831112731WSep 29 · 14:25P. Ishchyk1.571111113M. Skliar2.255530WSep 21 · 19:55P. Ishchyk1.731111113M. Skliar2.007550
A. Peretiatko10
WSep 30 · 18:55M. Skliar2.2011116962A. Peretiatko1.61361111113LSep 30 · 17:25D. Rehotun1.8311117113A. Peretiatko1.83591151WSep 30 · 15:25M. Fomin1.91271241A. Peretiatko1.80111110113WSep 30 · 13:25D. Us1.731151091A. Peretiatko2.0091112113WSep 29 · 20:25M. Skliar1.837570A. Peretiatko1.831111113LSep 29 · 18:55A. Peretiatko2.0011512972D. Us1.738111011113LSep 29 · 16:55P. Ishchyk1.7341111153A. Peretiatko2.001144131LSep 29 · 14:55D. Rehotun2.20116134113A. Peretiatko1.61811111192WSep 29 · 13:55V. Kobets1.5079100A. Peretiatko2.501111123LSep 28 · 20:25S. Khandetskyi1.4011112113A. Peretiatko2.75951191
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