TT Lossbeater/WTT Europe Smash Sweden Women Quals
WTT Europe Smash Sweden Women QualsMatch #12380145
Played Aug 8Finished
Laura Watanabe
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111172111214––
Gaia Monfardini
Away
1.17
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:48 and never touched — 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeGaia Monfardini to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLaura Watanabe above · Gaia Monfardini below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 72 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Gaia Monfardini at 70.9%
72 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:48What took a side2 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Monfardini
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Watanabe 20% vs Monfardini 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Watanabe 40% vs Monfardini 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Watanabe -1 · Monfardini -3
Monfardini
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Monfardini) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Monfardini form (20%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWatanabe 4.50 / Monfardini 1.17
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Monfardini)-0.0pp
WTT Europe Smash Sweden Women Quals · #12380145
Watanabe4.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Monfardini1.17
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricWatanabeMonfardiniBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 10 vs 5 / 1040%50%4 / 10 vs 5 / 10Avg sets wonper match1.62.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MonfardiniWatanabe 4.50/Monfardini 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Monfardini · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Monfardini won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
L. Watanabe10
LJul 24 · 20:00L. Watanabe8.001260E. Abraamian1.061111113WJul 23 · 21:45L. Watanabe2.381111113S. Vega1.538850LJul 10 · 20:40L. Watanabe—118461A. Rodriguez—61111113LJun 26 · 18:45L. Watanabe5.509940A. Zarif1.131111113LMay 5 · 17:10L. Watanabe1.3591381172E. Sadikovic2.901111119113WApr 30 · 16:20L. Watanabe—1111113B. Batmunkh—7510LApr 29 · 17:10L. Watanabe1.73611981H. Kodetova2.0011911113WApr 28 · 19:30L. Watanabe1.28117117113Z. Koshkumbayeva3.5041191192LApr 21 · 09:10L. Rakovac1.221113113L. Watanabe4.0051140WApr 20 · 16:15N. Darovcova2.751311951L. Watanabe1.4015611113
G. Monfardini10
LAug 9 · 12:05G. Monfardini2.50119111162Y. Yoo1.50711813113LJun 27 · 03:25G. Monfardini1.7091111772E. Zaharia1.96119911113LMay 21 · 08:00G. Monfardini7.0011119552S. Shibata1.08971111113LMay 6 · 18:30J. Yuan1.2011116113G. Monfardini4.33951171WMay 5 · 10:45G. Monfardini2.3812136113J. Shao1.5310111181LMay 5 · 08:56G. Monfardini2.5011113752F. Yu1.50971111113WMay 1 · 11:30G. Monfardini1.7091111113C. Arguelles1.95119691WApr 30 · 09:00G. Monfardini—3I. Malobabic—0WApr 28 · 09:21G. Monfardini—111163S. Altinkaya—1630LMar 10 · 16:40G. Monfardini2.38127481L. Bergstrom1.53101111113
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