TT Lossbeater/WTT Star Contender Brazil Qual
WTT Star Contender Brazil QualMatch #12284775
Played Jul 22Finished
Angel Naranjo
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
15131189119111012
Allan Sarmento
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–2Last 6Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:03 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeAllan Sarmento to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
109 points played in total.
Set by set
15131189119111012
H2H Angel Naranjo 0–1 Allan Sarmento Angel Naranjo has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:03What took a side2 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Naranjo
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Naranjo 40% vs Sarmento 60%
Sarmento
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naranjo 40% vs Sarmento 67%
Sarmento
Correct
27pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Naranjo +1 · Sarmento +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Naranjo) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sarmento form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaranjo 1.53 / Sarmento 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Naranjo)+0.0pp
WTT Star Contender Brazil Qual · #12284775
Naranjo1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Sarmento2.38
67%won 4 of 6 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 3 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNaranjo0wins
AwaySarmento1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSarmento leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricNaranjoSarmentoN − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match54.055.0−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaranjoSarmentoBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 10 vs 3 / 640%66.7%4 / 10 vs 3 / 6Avg sets wonper match1.62.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NaranjoNaranjo 1.53/Sarmento 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Naranjo · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sarmento won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJul 22 · 21:50A. Naranjo—151199102A. Sarmento—1381111123
A. Naranjo10
LSep 3 · 05:00A. Naranjo6.5081111632A. Robles1.10118911113WJul 22 · 14:35A. Naranjo—1111113B. Panini—7770LJul 11 · 16:20V. Picard1.3051111123A. Naranjo3.401173101WJul 10 · 15:40E. Rios—11931132A. Naranjo—811119113LJun 17 · 20:15A. Naranjo5.506350L. Yuan1.131111113LJun 17 · 16:55A. Naranjo4.506350L. Yuan1.171111113WJun 17 · 10:45A. Naranjo5.50117511113Y. Wang1.1371111972WJun 16 · 11:35K. Hamada1.139115101A. Naranjo5.5011911123LJun 9 · 14:45S. Lam1.2211611113A. Naranjo4.00711881LJun 2 · 16:45L. Mladenovic1.081111113A. Naranjo5.905930
A. Sarmento7
LJul 23 · 22:55A. Sarmento7.009490D. Fujii1.081111113WJul 21 · 20:00L. Ferreira—551171A. Sarmento—11119113LJul 31 · 14:50A. Sarmento4.003480H. Desai1.221111113WJul 30 · 21:10X. Lin1.83711861A. Sarmento1.8311811113WJul 30 · 14:55A. Sarmento1.301111113L. Kumahara3.406460LJun 29 · 16:00A. Sarmento1.91871151R. Blanco1.8011114113WJun 23 · 23:30C. Fernandez1.90141189113A. Sarmento1.80128111144
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