TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Bartlomiej Mrugala vs Adrian Myszewski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118311117117––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:26 and never touched: 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeAdrian Myszewski to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
118311117117––
H2H Bartlomiej Mrugala 1–0 Adrian Myszewski Adrian Myszewski has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Mrugala beat Myszewski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:2663.6%Our read55.2%to break even at 1.81
clears by 8.4pp55.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.81 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.81 (51%)
Myszewski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Mrugala 1276 vs Myszewski 1381
Myszewski
Wrong
both rated, 105 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrugala 80% vs Myszewski 60%
Mrugala
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrugala 60% vs Myszewski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrugala +1 · Myszewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Myszewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrugala form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrugala 1.90 / Myszewski 1.81
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Myszewski)+8.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13256959
Mrugala1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 97 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 61
Myszewski1.81
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 78 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it90% 35 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it79% 66 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMrugala1wins
AwayMyszewski0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderMrugala leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMrugalaMyszewskiMrugala − MyszewskiBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match47.043.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrugalaMyszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 720 vs 453 / 91846.1%49.4%332 / 720 vs 453 / 918Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MyszewskiMrugala 1.90/Myszewski 1.81
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Myszewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mrugala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 6 · 18:30B. Mrugala471141110113A. Myszewski4361181262
B. Mrugala10
WOct 6 · 23:45K. Golaszewski2.30111012252B. Mrugala1.557121011113LOct 6 · 22:35B. Mrugala1.7210960J. Rolak2.001211113WOct 6 · 21:55M. Skorski1.776811101B. Mrugala1.9511117123WOct 6 · 20:05B. Mrugala1.5211128113K. Golaszewski2.309101191WOct 6 · 18:30A. Myszewski1.8561181262B. Mrugala1.851141110113WOct 6 · 17:45M. Skorski1.908101181B. Mrugala1.8011128113LOct 6 · 16:55B. Mrugala1.681061151J. Rolak2.0512115113LOct 6 · 15:50B. Mrugala2.50511471D. Szlubowski1.4411911113LSep 30 · 00:35B. Mrugala3.649990K. Klocek1.241111113WSep 29 · 23:45J. Pruszkowski1.371041131B. Mrugala2.9012117113
A. Myszewski10
WOct 6 · 22:55K. Golaszewski2.60511841A. Myszewski1.4211711113LOct 6 · 22:15J. Rolak2.461111113A. Myszewski1.439680WOct 6 · 21:30M. Skorski2.53117871A. Myszewski1.4761111113WOct 6 · 19:40A. Myszewski1.68141289113D. Szlubowski2.051210111182LOct 6 · 18:30A. Myszewski1.8561181262B. Mrugala1.851141110113WOct 6 · 17:20A. Myszewski1.471111113K. Golaszewski2.409520LOct 6 · 16:15M. Skorski2.3012168113A. Myszewski1.5510141151WOct 6 · 15:25A. Myszewski1.6011115113J. Rolak2.15941171WOct 3 · 14:10A. Myszewski2.2011118113A. Linek1.61651191LOct 3 · 12:30I. Dabrowski1.73111111113A. Myszewski2.00581391
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