TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marek Tkocz vs Rafal Adach 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210117112––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched: 82.2% is still 82.2%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
82.2%
82.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
53 points played in total.
Set by set
1210117112––––
H2H Marek Tkocz 4–0 Rafal Adach Rafal Adach has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5282.2%Our read87.7%to break even at 1.14
short by 5.5pp87.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.14 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1466 vs Adach 1131
Tkocz
Correct
both rated, 335 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 80% vs Adach 20%
Tkocz
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 80% vs Adach 20%
Tkocz
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz +4 · Adach -1
Tkocz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% · Strong (leans Tkocz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 1.14 / Adach 4.80
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Tkocz)-5.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13255864
Tkocz1.14
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 284 of 420
Up 2–0, closes it95% 160 of 169
Up 1–0, closes it86% 238 of 278
Adach4.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 78 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back14% 22 of 155
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeTkocz4wins
AwayAdach0wins
Tkocz leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkocz100%4 of 4
AwayAdachn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkocz4Adach0n = 4Tkocz took 4 of 4
S2Tkocz2Adach2n = 4split evenly
S3Tkocz4Adach0n = 4Tkocz took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricTkoczAdachT − ABasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match37.521.8+15.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczAdachBasisWin rate · lifetime776 / 1171 vs 226 / 58566.3%38.6%776 / 1171 vs 226 / 585Avg sets wonper match2.41.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.934.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczTkocz 1.14/Adach 4.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.2%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 15 · 18:00M. Tkocz351111133R. Adach2036110
WSep 1 · 19:35M. Tkocz331111113R. Adach136340
WJul 5 · 10:58M. Tkocz4211911113R. Adach28811541
WJul 5 · 04:55M. Tkocz4011711113R. Adach26611721
M. Tkocz10
WOct 6 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.8867120M. Tkocz1.821111143WOct 6 · 18:00W. Pytlas2.85251171M. Tkocz1.3611116113WOct 6 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.90811611113P. Kaczynski1.8011411782WOct 6 · 16:00M. Tkocz1.4711117113G. Jurowicz2.50861171LOct 2 · 02:20M. Tkocz2.1555100M. Lebek1.601111123LOct 2 · 00:45G. Jurowicz1.58111167113M. Tkocz2.2669111142WOct 2 · 00:00M. Guzik1.78651171M. Tkocz1.9311117113WOct 1 · 23:10M. Tkocz1.451111113O. Sokolowski2.508680WOct 1 · 22:00M. Tkocz1.5111711133K. Adamus2.405117111WOct 1 · 20:45K. Adamus1.70116251M. Tkocz2.0081111113
R. Adach10
LOct 6 · 19:35P. Kaczynski1.32491111113R. Adach2.9511115772WOct 6 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.57911891R. Adach2.2711411113LOct 6 · 16:50G. Jurowicz1.541111113R. Adach2.258950LOct 6 · 15:10W. Pytlas1.461111113R. Adach2.504670LSep 28 · 02:00R. Ogon2.2511111112113R. Adach1.5581371462WSep 28 · 01:10A. Ruszkiewicz1.421186101R. Adach2.5571111123LSep 28 · 00:25R. Adach—11116572M. Jozefiak—581111113LSep 27 · 22:50R. Adach6.00851181M. Guzik1.0811118113LSep 27 · 22:00S. Krupa1.301111133R. Adach3.2538110LSep 27 · 20:45R. Adach—135981M. Jozefiak—111111113
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