TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Koczyba vs Rafal Adach 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911114811911––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:31 and never touched: 75.2% is still 75.2%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
75.2%
75.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
911114811911––
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 2–1 Rafal Adach Rafal Adach has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3175.2%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.57
clears by 11.5pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.57 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1385 vs Adach 1114
Koczyba
Wrong
both rated, 271 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 60% vs Adach 20%
Koczyba
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 70% vs Adach 10%
Koczyba
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -1 · Adach -3
Adach
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Koczyba) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adach form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.57 / Adach 2.27
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Koczyba)+11.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13255364
Koczyba1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 296 of 474
Up 2–0, closes it93% 152 of 163
Up 1–0, closes it78% 209 of 267
Adach2.27
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 78 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back14% 22 of 155
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKoczyba2wins
AwayAdach1wins
Koczyba leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba2Adach1n = 3Koczyba took 2 of 3
S2Koczyba2Adach1n = 3Koczyba took 2 of 3
S3Koczyba3Adach0n = 3Koczyba took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKoczybaAdachK − ABasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match34.027.3+6.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaAdachBasisWin rate · lifetime853 / 1324 vs 226 / 58564.4%38.6%853 / 1324 vs 226 / 585Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.234.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.57/Adach 2.27
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.2%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Adach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 26 · 04:25M. Koczyba36981181R. Adach4211119113
WMar 17 · 21:00M. Koczyba331111113R. Adach173770
WSep 1 · 22:20M. Koczyba331111113R. Adach236980
M. Koczyba10
LOct 6 · 16:25W. Pytlas2.25121411113M. Koczyba1.541016781WOct 6 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.62159411113P. Kaczynski2.15131111672WOct 4 · 08:20M. Koczyba2.351111113P. Zemla1.509570WOct 4 · 06:45W. Jozala4.026880M. Koczyba1.201111113LOct 4 · 06:00W. Pytlas2.2522812113M. Koczyba1.5520111071WOct 4 · 05:10M. Koczyba1.801111113K. Juszczyk1.858350WOct 4 · 04:00M. Koczyba—1051111113H. Tkaczyk—12116992WOct 3 · 08:00M. Koczyba2.2012117113P. Polok1.581011191LOct 3 · 06:45M. Koczyba1.80118761T. Lojtek1.9091111113WOct 3 · 05:35M. Koczyba1.751111113P. Mecik1.956250
R. Adach10
LOct 6 · 16:50G. Jurowicz1.541111113R. Adach2.258950LOct 6 · 15:10W. Pytlas1.461111113R. Adach2.504670LSep 28 · 02:00R. Ogon2.2511111112113R. Adach1.5581371462WSep 28 · 01:10A. Ruszkiewicz1.421186101R. Adach2.5571111123LSep 28 · 00:25R. Adach—11116572M. Jozefiak—581111113LSep 27 · 22:50R. Adach6.00851181M. Guzik1.0811118113LSep 27 · 22:00S. Krupa1.301111133R. Adach3.2538110LSep 27 · 20:45R. Adach—135981M. Jozefiak—111111113LSep 27 · 19:10R. Adach1.801131013112A. Ruszkiewicz1.908111211133LSep 27 · 18:00R. Adach2.83131071232S. Krupa1.3211121110113
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