TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Kiejda Patryk vs Michal Szostak 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71112141210511––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:25 and never touched: 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeKiejda Patryk to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
82 points played in total.
Set by set
71112141210511––
H2H Kiejda Patryk 5–5 Michal Szostak Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2559.4%Our read64.9%to break even at 1.54
short by 5.5pp64.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.54 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Patryk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Patryk 1468 vs Szostak 1431
Patryk
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Patryk 80% vs Szostak 60%
Patryk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Patryk 60% vs Szostak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Patryk +4 · Szostak +1
Patryk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Patryk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPatryk 1.54 / Szostak 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Patryk)-5.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13255037
Patryk1.54
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 121 of 209
Up 2–0, closes it93% 71 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it75% 94 of 126
Szostak2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 29) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 27 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back35% 12 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePatryk5wins
AwaySzostak5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePatryk60%3 of 5
AwaySzostak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Patryk5Szostak5n = 10split evenly
S2Patryk5Szostak5n = 10split evenly
S3Patryk5Szostak5n = 10split evenly
S4Patryk5Szostak2n = 7Patryk took 5 of 7
S5Patryk1Szostak2n = 3Szostak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPatrykSzostakP − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.136.8+2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPatrykSzostakBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 384 vs 130 / 26155.7%49.8%214 / 384 vs 130 / 261Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PatrykPatryk 1.54/Szostak 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.4%
Patryk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Szostak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 17:00K. Patryk52118141182M. Szostak50911163113
WSep 22 · 17:30K. Patryk3851111113M. Szostak31118571
LSep 9 · 19:30K. Patryk30109110M. Szostak361211133
LAug 30 · 12:05K. Patryk4914781192M. Szostak541211119113
WAug 25 · 16:30K. Patryk331111113M. Szostak249690
WAug 22 · 12:05K. Patryk4111118113M. Szostak27931141
WAug 18 · 18:30K. Patryk47681111113M. Szostak4111116672
LJun 23 · 16:30K. Patryk33811951M. Szostak4011711113
LJun 15 · 16:30K. Patryk357711101M. Szostak4211118123
WJun 9 · 17:30K. Patryk331111113M. Szostak239860
K. Patryk10
WOct 6 · 14:30K. Patryk1.3091111113J. Komorowicz3.20119391WOct 5 · 22:40W. Arkadiusz2.707101161K. Patryk1.4111122113WOct 5 · 20:00K. Patryk1.451111113J. Komorowicz2.587780WOct 5 · 18:30K. Patryk1.8011117113J. Caban1.90891161LOct 5 · 17:00K. Patryk2.0011910101W. Arkadiusz1.7181112123WOct 5 · 15:00K. Patryk1.5011129113D. Kovtanyuk2.456101161LOct 5 · 14:00K. Patryk1.3111711682S. Toborek3.20511711113WSep 30 · 22:00W. Arkadiusz1.70119781K. Patryk2.0061111113LSep 30 · 20:00K. Patryk1.30911111192P. Kedzierski3.25119138113LSep 30 · 18:30K. Patryk1.9581110101W. Arkadiusz1.7411412123
M. Szostak10
LOct 6 · 16:00M. Szostak1.4411451192P. Kedzierski2.60711118113WSep 29 · 22:40W. Arkadiusz1.721512971M. Szostak2.02171011113LSep 29 · 21:00M. Szostak1.981161251P. Kamil1.7581114113LSep 29 · 19:00W. Arkadiusz1.60118146113M. Szostak2.10811121192WSep 29 · 17:00K. Patryk1.47118141182M. Szostak2.50911163113WSep 29 · 16:00J. Caban1.91111112362M. Szostak1.801361011113WSep 29 · 15:30M. Szostak1.951111113D. Kovtanyuk1.777730WSep 26 · 13:45J. Komorowicz2.109720M. Szostak1.651111113LSep 26 · 13:05P. Kamil1.8811119113M. Szostak1.82381161LSep 26 · 11:35M. Szostak2.7371080L. Buklat1.401112113
Upcoming Matches
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M. Szostak
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