TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Bartlomiej Wisniewski vs Mikolaj Lukaszewski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113116119119––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:10 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMikolaj Lukaszewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
1113116119119––
H2H Bartlomiej Wisniewski 55–58 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Bartlomiej Wisniewski has won 55 of their 113 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 22h before this match
Wisniewski beat Lukaszewski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:1054.0%Our read57.1%to break even at 1.75
short by 3.1pp57.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.75 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (52%)
Lukaszewski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
55-58 in 113
Lukaszewski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 113, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wisniewski 1241 vs Lukaszewski 1226
Wisniewski
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wisniewski 0% vs Lukaszewski 40%
Lukaszewski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wisniewski 20% vs Lukaszewski 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wisniewski -5 · Lukaszewski +1
Wisniewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lukaszewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWisniewski 1.90 / Lukaszewski 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lukaszewski)-3.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13246666
Wisniewski1.90
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 165 of 447
Down 0–1, comes back16% 43 of 265
Down 0–2, comes back1% 2 of 146
Lukaszewski1.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 94 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it96% 43 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it83% 77 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWisniewski5wins
AwayLukaszewski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWisniewski75%3 of 4
AwayLukaszewski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wisniewski4Lukaszewski6n = 10Lukaszewski took 6 of 10
S2Wisniewski7Lukaszewski3n = 10Wisniewski took 7 of 10
S3Wisniewski7Lukaszewski3n = 10Wisniewski took 7 of 10
S4Wisniewski1Lukaszewski5n = 6Lukaszewski took 5 of 6
S5Wisniewski2Lukaszewski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWisniewskiLukaszewskiW − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.140.5−0.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWisniewskiLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime874 / 1854 vs 900 / 197947.1%45.5%874 / 1854 vs 900 / 1979Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LukaszewskiWisniewski 1.90/Lukaszewski 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lukaszewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wisniewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 07:40B. Wisniewski45612115113M. Lukaszewski47111091162
WSep 25 · 08:10B. Wisniewski341111123M. Lukaszewski2385100
LSep 24 · 06:30B. Wisniewski50791113102M. Lukaszewski541111911123
WSep 22 · 05:15B. Wisniewski531011115163M. Lukaszewski53127911142
WSep 21 · 05:15B. Wisniewski371211143M. Lukaszewski30108120
LSep 13 · 11:50B. Wisniewski371191071M. Lukaszewski4391112113
LSep 10 · 18:55B. Wisniewski4791111792M. Lukaszewski50119811113
LSep 9 · 06:30B. Wisniewski2798100M. Lukaszewski341111123
WAug 30 · 03:25B. Wisniewski351311113M. Lukaszewski2811890
LAug 18 · 07:20B. Wisniewski368111071M. Lukaszewski4311912113
B. Wisniewski10
LOct 5 · 04:10M. Zwolinski1.901091111133B. Wisniewski1.80121157112LOct 5 · 03:25B. Wisniewski5.0071480M. Kolek1.151116113LOct 4 · 14:40B. Wisniewski2.054119111W. Iwasyszyn1.6811811133LOct 4 · 13:05B. Wisniewski1.85691391A. Eliasz1.80111111113LOct 4 · 11:50B. Wisniewski2.82113117112T. Piotrowski1.38611911133WOct 4 · 10:10B. Wisniewski1.881211133A. Szoltysek1.82109110LOct 4 · 09:00B. Wisniewski2.0515811101P. Krukar1.6817118123WOct 4 · 07:40M. Lukaszewski1.87111091162B. Wisniewski1.83612115113LOct 4 · 06:55A. Szoltysek1.901113123B. Wisniewski1.75811100LOct 4 · 06:05B. Wisniewski1.90681181A. Eliasz1.7511117113
M. Lukaszewski10
WOct 5 · 03:00M. Zwolinski1.8081280M. Lukaszewski1.911114113LOct 4 · 07:40M. Lukaszewski1.87111091162B. Wisniewski1.83612115113LOct 4 · 06:30M. Lukaszewski2.3041060W. Iwasyszyn1.551112113LOct 4 · 05:15M. Lukaszewski1.9596130P. Krukar1.751111153WOct 4 · 04:10A. Szoltysek1.8511116772M. Lukaszewski1.85871111113LOct 4 · 03:25M. Lukaszewski2.00381141A. Eliasz1.7111117113LOct 3 · 14:15M. Lukaszewski2.051451151M. Skorski1.7016119113LOct 3 · 12:35T. Piotrowski1.621111113M. Lukaszewski2.189710WOct 3 · 11:45K. Makowski1.7510960M. Lukaszewski1.901211113LOct 3 · 10:55M. Lukaszewski2.259870P. Maruszak1.551111113
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